PART 2. CORONAVIRUS. “If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic..”….. “With isolated cases of the dangerous new coronavirus cropping up in a number of states, public health officials say it is only a matter of time before the virus appears in New York City.”

PART 1 FOLLOWED BY NEW PART 2

PART 1. January 21, 2020

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday confirmed the first U.S. case of a deadly new coronavirus that has killed six people in China.”

“Chinese researchers say they have identified a new virus behind an illness that has infected dozens of people across Asia, setting off fears in a region that was struck by a deadly epidemic 17 years ago.

There is no evidence that the new virus is readily spread by humans, which would make it particularly dangerous, and it has not been tied to any deaths. But health officials in China and elsewhere are watching it carefully to ensure that the outbreak does not develop into something more severe.

Researchers in China have “initially identified” the new virus, a coronavirus, as the pathogen behind a mysterious, pneumonialike illness that has sickened 59 people in the city of Wuhan and caused a panic in the central Chinese region, the state broadcaster, China Central Television, said on Thursday. They detected this virus in 15 of the people who fell ill, the report said.

The new coronavirus “is different from previous human coronaviruses that were previously discovered, and more scientific research is needed for further understanding,” the report said.” (A)

“China released the genetic sequence of a new coronavirus believed to be responsible for a cluster 0f unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan. Phylogenetic analysis shows the coronavirus to be closely related to SARS CoV, the virus responsible for the SARS pandemic which began in China in 2003.

Further analysis is necessary, but this preliminary analysis shows the virus is also quite similar to other SARS-related coronaviruses which appear to be endemic to the area. Prior EcoHealth Alliance research has found evidence that these viruses are spilling into human populations. We are also conducting behavioral analysis with the goal of reducing risk for this spillover.

The virus responsible for the current outbreak in Wuhan has so far killed one person; fortunately it’s not currently believed that the virus has the ability to spread human-to-human. Our work has shown that there is a large diversity of coronaviruses that are endemic to China.” (B)

“Chinese officials confirmed Tuesday that six people have died from a pneumonialike coronavirus, while raising the number of confirmed cases of the illness to 300, sparking fears of an outbreak in the country. The virus, which was first confirmed on Dec. 31 in the city of Wuhan, is believed to have been transmitted from animals to humans, but Chinese health officials now say they have evidence that human-to-human transmission is also possible, potentially via saliva. The World Health Organization says the symptoms of the virus are fever, cough, and respiratory difficulties such as shortness of breath, all of which can, in serious cases, lead to pneumonia, kidney failure, and, in the most severe cases, death.” (C)

“Officials in China are racing to contain the spread of a new virus that has left at least six people dead and sickened more than 300, after it was confirmed the infection can spread between humans.

Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the coronavirus was first detected, announced a series of new measures Tuesday, including the cancellation of upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations, expected to attract hundreds of thousands of people.

Tour agencies have been banned from taking groups out of Wuhan and the number of thermal monitors and screening areas in public spaces will be increased. Traffic police will also conduct spot checks on private vehicles coming in and out of the city to look for live poultry or wild animals, after the virus was linked to a seafood and live animal market, according to a report by state media outlet the People’s Daily, citing Wuhan’s Municipal Health Commission.

The new measures come after Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered “resolute efforts to curb the spread” of the virus Monday.

There are now fears, however, that efforts to contain it are coming too late, hampered by a slow-moving Chinese bureaucracy which failed to put sufficient measures in place in time.

In the coming days, hundreds of millions of Chinese are expected to begin traveling across the country and overseas as the annual Lunar New Year break gets fully underway, compounding concerns of a further spike in cases.

Though infections were first detected in Wuhan in mid-December, infrared temperature screening areas were not installed in the city’s airports and stations until January 14, according to state media.

On Tuesday, China’s National Health Commission announced that it had received 291 confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus, with 77 new cases reported on January 20.” (D)

“Earlier on Monday, Chinese authorities reported that the number of cases had tripled over the weekend to 218. The outbreak has spread to Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzen, hundreds of miles from Wuhan, where the virus first surfaced last month.” (E)

“Thailand and Japan each reported new cases of a coronavirus that has left two people dead and at least 40 sick in China, adding to concerns about the spread of the virus beyond Chinese borders ahead of a major holiday.

Health officials in Thailand on Friday said they had found a second case of the mysterious pneumonialike coronavirus in that country, in a 74-year-old Chinese woman. The woman is in good and stable condition, said a spokesman for Thailand’s public health ministry, Rungrueng Kitphati.

The woman entered Thailand through Bangkok via a flight from the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. Investigators were still trying to gather information from the woman but have been hindered by a language barrier, Mr. Rungrueng said.

On Thursday, Japan’s Health Ministry said that a Chinese man in his 30s tested positive for the coronavirus. The man, a resident of Kanagawa Prefecture, just south of Tokyo, returned to Japan on Jan. 6 after traveling to Wuhan. The man, who came down with a fever on Jan. 3, was hospitalized on Friday but was discharged five days later because he had recovered, according to the Health Ministry.” (F)

“A British tourist is feared to have contracted the mysterious coronavirus that’s sweeping Asia after he was hospitalized on a trip to Thailand, according to a report.

Ash Shorley, 32, was admitted in critical condition to a Phuket hospital, where he’s being treated for pneumonia-like lung infections, the Sun reported.

Doctors believe his symptoms are consistent with the new Chinese coronavirus, which has killed three patients and infected hundreds of others.

“They think he is the first Western victim of the Chinese flu,” his father, Chris, told the outlet. “We are waiting on tests.”” (G)

 “Airports in New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles will begin screening passengers arriving from Wuhan, China, for infection with a mysterious respiratory virus that has killed two people and sickened at least 45 overseas, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Friday.” (H)

“Officials this week also confirmed that the new coronavirus, which is linked to a seafood and animal market in Wuhan, is transmissible between humans. This ultimately sparked fears that a person infected with the virus and experiencing the most severe stage of infection could be a super-spreader —  someone who transmits the virus to a considerable more amount of people than the average infected person, the South China Morning Post reported…

In response to the outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) is holding an emergency meeting on Wednesday to determine whether or not it should be considered an international public health emergency, according to the South China Morning Post…

Australia is taking similar measures, with officials there announcing Tuesday that the country will also begin screening passengers who are arriving from Wuhan, according to The New York Times. Japan and South Korea also announced increased airport screenings.

But even with screening measures, “You cannot absolutely prevent entry into the country of a disease like this,” Brendan Murphy, the chief medical officer for the Australian government, said, according to the newspaper. Some people who are infected may not show symptoms, he explained.” (I)

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday confirmed the first U.S. case of a deadly new coronavirus that has killed six people in China.

The CDC and Washington state officials said the man, in his 30s, was in good condition at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett. The symptoms presented Sunday and the diagnosis was confirmed Monday.

Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, called the news “concerning.”

“We’re still in the early days of this investigation,” Messonnier said.” (J)

PREQUELS

“A SEVERE FLU PANDEMIC… could kill more than 33 million people worldwide in just 250 days.” – “Boy, do we not have our act together.” — Bill Gates”. (J)

ASSIGNMENT: Does your community have a seasonal flu EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN? Do your community’s hospitals have SURGE CAPACITY  and RAPID RESPONSE TEAMS? If not, develop a plan!

EBOLA. PART 13. Ebola Treatment Centers are having difficulty maintaining their ability to respond to Ebola cases that may come again to the U.S.

ASSIGNMENT: As Ebola spreads from Congo to contiguous countries In Africa, is the United States prepared for Ebola and other known and unknown emerging viruses?

PART 4. CANDIDA AURIS. “.. nursing facilities, and long-term hospitals, are…continuously cycling infected patients, or those who carry the germ, into hospitals and back again.”

Tomorrow morning’s Emergency Preparedness meeting (just scheduled for 8AM, https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2018/10/tomorrow-mornings-emergency-preparedness-meeting-just-scheduled-for-8am/

“we are not finished with Zika… It very well could come back.” Are we ready?

Hospitals are developing their own Zika preparedness models. Compare the Central Florida and Johns Hopkins approaches! Which template makes more sense? https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2016/09/hospitals-are-developing-their-own-zika-preparedness-models-compare-the-central-florida-and-johns-hopkins-approaches-which-template-makes-more-sense/

We don’t know what we don’t know” (1) The challenge to emergency preparedness….., https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2017/08/we-dont-know-what-we-dont-know-1-the-challenge-to-emergency-preparedness/

Doctor, Did You Wash Your Hands?® There is a sign in my primary care provider’s examination room:

https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=9909&action=edit

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NEW PART 2. CORONAVIRUS. “If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic..”….. “With isolated cases of the dangerous new coronavirus cropping up in a number of states, public health officials say it is only a matter of time before the virus appears in New York City.”

In July of 2009 the Mayor of Hoboken asked me to initiate a H1N1 “Swine Flu” Task Force. We started with a set of questions based on reports from communities that had already experienced a Swine Flu surge:

Health Officer: Where vaccination sites should be established? Is there a special plan to monitor restaurants and food shops where flu-related safety guidelines need to be strictly enforced? Who will start preparing a Community Education plan?

Hospital: What is the back-up plan if hospital becomes “contaminated” and is closed to admissions, or if nursing staff is depleted by flu-related absenteeism, etc.? ICU triage? Availability of respirators?

OEM:  off-site screening centers if hospital ER is on overload

Hoboken Volunteer Ambulance Corps:  “mutual assist” plan

Hoboken Police Department & Hoboken Fire Department: back-up plan if the ranks get depleted by the flu

BOE: criteria in deciding whether or not to close schools

Stevens Institute of Technology: surveillance and plan for (college) students

“Field Manual” for the Mayor

Interestingly Swine Flu never flourished in the Hoboken area probably due to herd immunity acquired from the Swine Flu in 2008 in New York City, where many Hobokenites work and visit.

Acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus, called SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003 and the illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the SARS global outbreak was contained. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died. In the United States, only eight people had laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV infection. All of these people had traveled to other parts of the world with SARS.” (A)

With SARS preparedness underway in NJ LibertyHealth/ Jersey City Medical Center, where I was President, proposed that our 100 bed community hospital with all single-bedded rooms, be immediately transformed into an EMERGENCY SARS ISOLATION Hospital.

The Hospital was in a small town at the intersection of many major highways. It could be easily secured since it had no immediately contiguous neighbors. It had a helicopter pad. Its patients could be easily transferred. And it could be managed by the Public Health Service or military medicine if necessary.

It didn’t happen!

“We understand that many people in the Unites States are worried about this virus,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

“At this time, in the U.S., the virus is not spreading in the community,” she added. “For that reason we continue to believe that the immediate health risk from the new virus to the general public is low at this time.”

In the U.S., 110 individuals from 26 states are being investigated to determine whether they have coronavirus. Of those individuals, 32 have tested negative, five have tested positive, and the remaining test results are pending.

No new coronavirus cases have been diagnosed overnight, according to the CDC, and all five cases were in people who had traveled to China. Two of those five cases are in Southern California and Chicago, Washington state and Arizona have each reported one coronavirus case…

Five U.S. airports, in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago and Atlanta, continue to screen passengers from Wuhan for pneumonia-like symptoms, such as fever and respiratory problems. So far, airports have screened about 2,400 passengers, with screenings declining following strict travel bans and a quarantine in Wuhan…

The CDC is in the process of developing a real-time diagnostic test to identify the virus and is hoping to quickly roll that test out to states. For now, all samples are being sent to the CDC in Atlanta, a process which takes about a day, from the time clinicians and the CDC agree to test a patient for coronavirus until results come back from Atlanta. Other countries are doing similar centralized testing, Messonnier explained. While speed is important, accurate testing is the agency’s priority.

While a report in the Lancet, published Jan. 24, suggested that people who contract coronavirus might be able spread the disease before they develop symptoms, Messonnier maintained that the CDC has “no clear evidence” of patients’ being infectious before symptom onset. For now, the virus’ incubation period is believed to be between two and 14 days..

The World Health Organization did not declare a public health emergency of international concern last week, after deliberating for two days over the decision.” (C)

“It appears to be very well contained,” Mark Parrish, regional medical director of Northern Europe at International SOS, told CNBC Tuesday.

“The Chinese have done some extraordinary things, identifying the virus and its molecular structures and then instigating those quarantine measures in China where they have shut down these huge cities and stopped all movement. It’s come at a really bad time of the year … It’s likely to have moved around China.”

“It appears though that the death rate remains at about 2% to 3%, it seems to be very well contained at the moment,” he said.

“Putting it into perspective, 100 deaths or so, so far, all in elderly people and those that have other co-existing diseases unfortunately. And those are the ones that are most likely to be affected by this as their respiratory systems find it difficult to deal with these things.”..

Global media organizations have fixated on whether the outbreak will be declared a “global health emergency” by the World Health Organization (WHO). Currently, the WHO has the virus at a “high risk” level after admitting on Monday its error in initially stating (last week) that the global risk was “moderate.”

Christian Lindmeier, spokesperson for the WHO, told CNBC Tuesday that the assessment was done by a group of independent experts and that the situation would be re-evaluated “very soon.”

He said there was definitely a crisis in China “but declaring this a public health emergency of international concern is another step. It means that internationally this is spreading and is transmitting from human to human internationally.

“So not only a traveler carrying it from China into another country and it being contained there, but it spreading onward from there and this is something we’ve not yet seen, let’s be very clear about this,” he said.

Although it has not happened yet, Lindmeier said it would not be surprising if the virus spread further. He said health systems should closely monitor the situation and “be aware that this is what could come to their shores.”..

“The jury’s still out just how bad it will be, but when you think that the number of cases has doubled in one day, that’s very worrisome,” he said.” (D)

“With isolated cases of the dangerous new coronavirus cropping up in a number of states, public health officials say it is only a matter of time before the virus appears in New York City.

As a result, hospitals have been on the lookout for patients with recent travel involving Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus is believed to have originated. And they have urged those who recently traveled there — or who have been in contact with someone who has — to quickly seek medical care if they have any respiratory or flulike symptoms.

“It’s inevitable that we will have someone who is positive with coronavirus,” New York City’s health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, said Sunday.

Some of the last passengers to arrive at Kennedy International Airport on the last direct flights from Wuhan before they were canceled were quarantining themselves at home. One man told of how he had confined himself to his house in Queens, as friends left special Lunar New Year meals on his doorstep.

So far, state officials have sought testing for nine patients who were deemed potential cases of the new coronavirus, sending samples to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for testing.

Four of those patients were found not to have the virus, and the tests involving the other five are still pending, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said Monday in a statement.

When the first case does arrive, health officials said, that patient may end up in a biocontainment unit in Bellevue Hospital or sent home to ride out the illness in his or her bedroom. That will depend largely on how sick they are, public health officials say…

By and large, the message to the public has been one of reassurance. “We are encouraging New Yorkers to go about their everyday lives and suggest practicing everyday precautions that we do through the flu season,” Dr. Barbot said.

But there is considerable anxiety and debate over the proper precautions within the city’s Chinatowns. That has only grown in the past few days as more alarming news has emerged out of Wuhan about the virus’s spread. So far more than 4,500 people have been sickened and more than 100 people have died.” (E)

“New York’s colleges, which enroll some 50,000 students from China, put out warnings to be on alert for symptoms of the deadly coronavirus as classes started up again for the spring semester.

Most of the Chinese students in the state are studying in the New York City area, according to the Institute for International Education’s most recent report.

New York University, which has upwards of 19,000 international students — more than any other college in the country — said it reached out to students from China’s Wuhan region, where the virus originated, and “provided them with information about the symptoms, instructed them to check in with us if they are experiencing those symptoms, reminded them about the availability of NYU health services.”

Spring semester classes begin Monday at NYU. A college spokesman would not say how many students come from the Wuhan area.” (F)

“The first U.S. patient, an unidentified man in his 30s, had traveled to the Wuhan area at the end of last year. He fell ill shortly after flying back to the U.S., where he lives north of Seattle.

In Washington state, health agencies have identified more than 60 people who came in close contact with the infected man before he was hospitalized in Everett, a city in Snohomish County outside Seattle.

The case quickly grabbed headlines, but it didn’t rattle local health clinic workers who had recently geared up to handle another infectious disease.

“The measles really kind of enlightened everybody about ‘Wow, there are a lot of things out there that can be really contagious and can get you really sick, really fast,’ ” says Tove Skaftun, the chief nursing officer for the Community Health Center of Snohomish County.

Skaftun says she’s glad that last year’s outbreak forced them to improve how they approach these situations.

“We’ve recently grown our infection-control program so it’s kind of at the forefront of a lot of what we do,” says Skaftun.

She says that effort focused on educating staff about the correct precautions to take when faced with different kinds of infectious diseases — including wearing protective air-purifying respirators when in contact with patients who may be infected…

The patient in Seattle first went to a local health clinic when he started showing symptoms. Once it became clear he was at risk for coronavirus, he was transported to Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, a hospital north of Seattle, where he was treated in isolation. He remains in “satisfactory” condition, according to the Washington State Department of Health.

Dr. Amy Compton-Phillips, the chief clinical officer at Providence St. Joseph Health, which runs that hospital, says it was set up to handle high-level infectious pathogens during the Ebola scare of 2014.

“All types of infrastructure had been put in place to ensure that when something came around we’d be ready,” says Compton-Phillips.

Those include specialized gurneys to keep patients isolated while they’re wheeled around the hospital, robots that can listen to patients’ lungs and take blood pressure, and rooms with negative-pressure air flow so germs aren’t circulated throughout the rest of the hospital…

She says staff have practiced getting ready for an infectious outbreak pretty recently. Last year, Clark County, Wash., which is part of suburban Portland, Ore., had an alarming outbreak of 71 cases of measles, mostly among unvaccinated children…

“There are a lot of unknowns,” says Janet Baseman, professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington. “The best thing public health can do now is assume that it will be similar to other coronavirus outbreaks we have seen in recent years until proven otherwise.”

“Being overprepared is the name of the game,” she says.” (G)

“The emergency call was made to Hackensack University Medical Center late Thursday night.

A doctor’s office was sending a woman in her mid-20s to the emergency room, according to reports, with a suspected case of coronavirus, the deadly novel virus sweeping through China and much of Asia.

The alert turned out to be a false alarm: The patient did not have the coronavirus. Although a relief, it was a scenario hospitals across the state have been bracing for as fears mount that this new, mysterious virus will spread to New Jersey.

Emergency rooms throughout the Garden State are ramping up their procedures in preparation for the time when a patient does arrive with the deadly virus.

“The key is to recognize it early so you can isolate early, and that prevents the likelihood of spreading in our facility and to other patients and employees,” Dr. Jerry Zuckerman, vice president of infection prevention and control at Hackensack Meridian Health System, told NJ Advance Media…

Experts determined the patient who entered the Hackensack emergency room Thursday night was not infected with the virus after an evaluation, a spokeswoman for Hackensack Meridian Health said. Zuckerman declined to discuss the patient, but shed some light on how such a virus is contained in an emergency room.

The protocols are anything but high-tech. But they work, Zuckerman said.

Interview the patient. Mask the patient. Isolate the patient.

That’s it.

It may sound rudimentary, but that is all that stands between the virus spreading or being contained.

First, patients are interviewed to determine whether they’ve visited the outbreak’s place of origin. Then patients are masked and isolated, before being placed in an airborne infection isolation room — also called a negative pressure room. These rooms isolate pathogens.

If medical personnel must enter an isolation room, they have to wear respirator masks, gloves and goggles — think of the protective gear worn in the 1995 Dustin Hoffman film, “Outbreak.”..

 “Although this novel virus in understandably a cause for concern, it is important for New Jersey residents to know that the risk to the public remains low,” Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said in the Department of Health statement.

“The New Jersey Department of Health works with hospitals and local health departments throughout respiratory virus and flu season on hundreds of disease outbreaks each year and we are prepared — along with our partners — to respond to potential novel coronavirus cases.”” (H)

“The Chinese city of Wuhan is rapidly building a new 1,000-bed hospital to treat victims of a new coronavirus, mobilising machinery to get it ready by early next week, state media said…

The new hospital is being built around a holiday complex originally intended for local workers, set in gardens by a lake on the outskirts of the city, the official Changjiang Daily reported on Friday. Prefabricated buildings which will have 1,000 beds will be put up, it said.

Building machinery, including 35 diggers and 10 bulldozers, arrived at the site on Thursday night, with the aim to get the new facility ready by Monday, the paper added.

“The construction of this project is to solve the shortage of existing medical resources” the report said.

“Because it will be prefabricated buildings, it will not only be built fast but it also won’t cost much.”” (I)

“How is China able to build a hospital in six days?

“China has a record of getting things done fast even for monumental projects like this,” says Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.

He points out that the hospital in Beijing in 2003 was built in seven days so the construction team is probably attempting to beat that record. Just like the hospital in Beijing, the Wuhan centre will be made out of prefabricated buildings.

“This authoritarian country relies on this top down mobilisation approach. They can overcome bureaucratic nature and financial constraints and are able to mobilise all of the resources.”

Mr Huang said that engineers would be brought in from across the country in order to complete construction in time.

“The engineering work is what China is good at. They have records of building skyscrapers at speed. This is very hard for westerners to imagine. It can be done,” he added.

In terms of medical supplies, Wuhan can either take supplies from other hospitals or can easily order them from factories.

On Friday, the Global Times confirmed 150 medical personnel from the People’s Liberation Army had arrived in Wuhan. However it did not confirm if they would be working in the new hospital once it has been built.”  (J)

“Some infectious disease experts are warning that it may no longer be feasible to contain the new coronavirus circulating in China. Failure to stop it there could see the virus spread in a sustained way around the world and even perhaps join the ranks of respiratory viruses that regularly infect people.

“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.

The pessimistic assessment comes from both researchers studying the dynamics of the outbreak—the rate at which cases are rising in and emerging from China—and infectious diseases experts who are parsing the first published studies describing cases to see if public health tools such as isolation and quarantine could as effective in this outbreak as they were in the 2003 SARS epidemic…

China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, warned Sunday that the virus seems to be becoming more transmissible and the country—which has taken unprecedentedly draconian steps to control the virus—was entering a “crucial stage.”..

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency knows transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.

“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,” she told STAT. “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”

To date, at least 14 countries and territories outside of mainland China have reported nearly 60 cases. There have been no reports yet of unchecked spreading from those imported cases to others…

 “If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,” Bedford said, though he cautioned that it’s impossible to know at this point how severe that type of event would be…

 “I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around the possibility that this won’t be contained.”” (K)

“Laurie Garrett, a Pulitzer Prize-winning science writer, told Yahoo Finance that despite swelling panic over the spread of coronavirus, people should be “realistic” about the infection and the protections they employ against it.

“One of the smart ways to approach thinking about ‘how do you protect yourself,’ is to ask, well, when somebody here in the office has a common cold, and they’re sneezing all over the place, how do you make yourself not get the cold?” asked Garrett, the author of “The Coming Plague,” a book about emerging deadly diseases.

“Social distancing; that’s step number one. Keep your distance from other people” in order to avoid contracting or spreading an infection, Garrett told “The Final Round.” Cleanliness and personal hygiene is also of utmost concern, she added.

“For yourself, think of your hands as your number one problem: anything you touch that’s a common surface,” the author said, explaining that the same principle governs why people are discouraged from sharing utensils or cups.

“Here, in New York City, we think about the subways, we think about how we move around in the city; the answer, if you’re nervous, is wear gloves. Then take your gloves and wash them at night,” Garrett said. “If it’s socially required to shake hands, wash your hands afterwards.”…

Garrett said that “…unlike SARS, which only is contagious when you have a fever, this one seems to be contagious when you don’t even know that you’ve been infected, and the incubation time is much longer.”

While SARS only took three to five days to incubate, the coronavirus “is going out ten days. That means that, potentially, individuals are contagious to others for ten days, without knowing it, traveling about and doing whatever they do with their daily life and infecting so many other people.”

The author also argued that official numbers are “grossly underestimating” the true toll of infections.

“They have a lag time in testing people; they don’t have enough test kits; they have lines around the block, in Wuhan, of people trying to get tested,” says Garrett. “It’s wholly backed up.”” (L)

“A flight carrying about 200 American evacuees landed Wednesday at a US military base in Southern California after leaving the epicenter of the deadly coronavirus outbreak in China.

The flight — operated by Kalitta Air out of Ypsilanti Township, Michigan — was seen taxiing down the runway shortly after 8 a.m. (11 a.m. ET). Several law enforcement vehicles greeted it on the tarmac, their lights flashing…

The US Defense Department will work with the US Department of Health and Human Services, which includes the CDC, to provide housing and, if any individuals are ill, care at a local civilian hospital, Defense Department spokeswoman Alyssa Fara said.

In Alaska, officials conducted two health screenings after prior screenings in China. The CDC cleared all passengers to continue on to California, Alaska officials said.

Passengers were screened in an isolated area of the Anchorage airport’s north terminal, which handles international flights, and had no impact on general travel, airport manager Jim Szczesniak said.

The CDC will work with airport officials to clean the terminal, and there are no international flights scheduled at the airport until May, he said…

Precautions were taken to separate the crew on the plane’s upper level from the passengers on the plane’s lower level, she said, and the crew did not disembark in China.

“These individuals will be screened before they take off; monitored during the duration of the flight by medical personnel on board; screened again on landing to refuel in Anchorage, Alaska; monitored on the last leg of the flight by medical personnel on board; evaluated upon arrival at March Air Reserve Base … and then monitored for symptoms post-arrival,” the CDC said.

The passengers may be forced to stay in isolation between three days and two weeks, an official said.

Priority was given to US citizens at risk

The passengers include US diplomats and their families. The State Department said US citizens could board on a reimbursable basis if space was available.

While there are about 1,000 Americans living in Wuhan, priority was given to US citizens who are “most at risk for contracting coronavirus” if they stay in the city, the State Department said.” (M)

“How would you describe the rate of spread?

Honestly, we don’t know, and part of the reason that it’s continuing at this point in time is because testing is just becoming available. So, while we’re seeing a big bolus [large number] of diagnosed cases, we don’t yet know when they were actually infected.

What we’re waiting for from the World Health Organization is the “epi curve,” which is the graph that shows, by date, the number of new cases and the date of onset of their symptoms. It may be that we’ve been seeing 200 cases a day over 10 days, or it may be that we saw 3 cases, and then we saw 15 and then we saw 100 and then we saw 500 and now a thousand.

We just don’t understand yet whether the case count is due to accelerating spread, or is that just kind of an artificial understanding because of the way the tests are being deployed and the diagnoses are coming in…

How should health officials communicate with the public?

In any frightening new situation, trust is the most important thing. And when you don’t have all of the facts and you’re not sure about what’s going on, maintaining your credibility and your trust are of paramount importance. If you’re going to try to influence what people do or how they decide to manage themselves in a situation like this, you have a lot better chance of helping them decide to do the right thing if they trust you.

So that means first and foremost, telling them the truth. Tell them what you know is going on, tell them what you wish you knew but don’t. Then it’s important to tell them what you’re doing to get answers and, above all, that you promise that when you have new information, you will share it in a timely manner.

If you can keep that cadence going in an outbreak, people will trust you because you do what you say, and they will come to rely upon you as a credible source of updated information.” “(N)

Here are my main takeaways from that experience for ordinary people on the ground:

1. Wash your hands frequently.

2. Don’t go to the office when you are sick. Don’t send your kids to school or day care when they are ill, either.

Notice I didn’t say anything about masks. Having a mask with you as a precaution makes sense if you are in the midst of an outbreak, as I was when out reporting in the field during those months. But wearing it constantly is another matter. I donned a mask when visiting hospitals where SARS patients had been housed. I wore it in the markets where wild animals that were the suspected source of the outbreak were being butchered, blood droplets flying. I wore it in crowded enclosed spaces that I couldn’t avoid, like airplanes and trains, as I traveled to cities involved in the outbreak, like Guangzhou and Hong Kong. You never know if the guy coughing and sneezing two rows ahead of you is ill or just has an allergy.

But outdoors, infections don’t spread well through the air. Those photos of people walking down streets in China wearing masks are dramatic but uninformed. And remember if a mask has, perchance, intercepted viruses that would have otherwise ended up in your body, then the mask is contaminated. So, in theory, to be protected maybe you should use a new one for each outing.

The simple masks are better than nothing, but not all that effective, since they don’t seal well. For anyone tempted to go out and buy the gold standard, N95 respirators, note that they are uncomfortable. Breathing is more work. It’s hard to talk to people. On one long flight at the height of the outbreak, on which my few fellow passengers were mostly epidemiologists trying to solve the SARS puzzle, many of us (including me) wore our masks for the first couple of hours on the flight. Then the food and beverage carts came.”  (O)

“The spread of a fast-moving virus outside of China is of “grave concern” and has prompted the World Health Organization to reconvene an emergency meeting this week to decide whether it’s become a global health emergency, WHO officials said Wednesday.

The coronavirus has spread to a handful of people through human-to-human contact outside of China, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, said at a news conference at the organization’s Geneva headquarters Wednesday.

“These developments in terms of the evolution of the outbreak and further development of transmission, these are of grave concern and has spurred countries into action,” Ryan said, adding that he just returned from China on Wednesday. “What we know at this stage, this is still obviously a very active outbreak and information is being updated and changing by the hour.”” (P)

(The old B.S. Pollak Hospital, part of the old Jersey City Medical Center, was constructed with federal funds during the Great Depression. The building is now privately owned.

“The Pollak Hospital facility was formerly the site of a three-story building constructed in 1918 for the Jersey City School for Crippled Children. It was taken over as the Infectious Disease Hospital and in 1934 received a loan of $2,996,000 by the Reconstruction Finance Corporation for a new county tuberculosis hospital. The 250-bed facility was eventually named for Dr. B.S. Pollak and became noted for the treatment of chest diseases. When completed in 1936, the 22-floor hospital, at 320 feet, was the tallest building in Jersey City until 1989 with the construction of Exchange Place Center at 490 feet.”) (B)

PART 1. CORONAVIRUS. “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday confirmed the first U.S. case of a deadly new coronavirus that has killed six people in China.”

Doctor, Did You Wash Your Hands?®  at  https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/

TWITTER @jonathan_metsch   FACEBOOK Jonathan M. Metsch    LINKEDIN Jonathan Metsch

#CoronavirusTracker   #CoronavirusRapidResponse

“Chinese researchers say they have identified a new virus behind an illness that has infected dozens of people across Asia, setting off fears in a region that was struck by a deadly epidemic 17 years ago.

There is no evidence that the new virus is readily spread by humans, which would make it particularly dangerous, and it has not been tied to any deaths. But health officials in China and elsewhere are watching it carefully to ensure that the outbreak does not develop into something more severe.

Researchers in China have “initially identified” the new virus, a coronavirus, as the pathogen behind a mysterious, pneumonialike illness that has sickened 59 people in the city of Wuhan and caused a panic in the central Chinese region, the state broadcaster, China Central Television, said on Thursday. They detected this virus in 15 of the people who fell ill, the report said.

The new coronavirus “is different from previous human coronaviruses that were previously discovered, and more scientific research is needed for further understanding,” the report said.” (A)

“China released the genetic sequence of a new coronavirus believed to be responsible for a cluster 0f unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan. Phylogenetic analysis shows the coronavirus to be closely related to SARS CoV, the virus responsible for the SARS pandemic which began in China in 2003.

Further analysis is necessary, but this preliminary analysis shows the virus is also quite similar to other SARS-related coronaviruses which appear to be endemic to the area. Prior EcoHealth Alliance research has found evidence that these viruses are spilling into human populations. We are also conducting behavioral analysis with the goal of reducing risk for this spillover.

The virus responsible for the current outbreak in Wuhan has so far killed one person; fortunately it’s not currently believed that the virus has the ability to spread human-to-human. Our work has shown that there is a large diversity of coronaviruses that are endemic to China.” (B)

“Chinese officials confirmed Tuesday that six people have died from a pneumonialike coronavirus, while raising the number of confirmed cases of the illness to 300, sparking fears of an outbreak in the country. The virus, which was first confirmed on Dec. 31 in the city of Wuhan, is believed to have been transmitted from animals to humans, but Chinese health officials now say they have evidence that human-to-human transmission is also possible, potentially via saliva. The World Health Organization says the symptoms of the virus are fever, cough, and respiratory difficulties such as shortness of breath, all of which can, in serious cases, lead to pneumonia, kidney failure, and, in the most severe cases, death.” (C)

“Officials in China are racing to contain the spread of a new virus that has left at least six people dead and sickened more than 300, after it was confirmed the infection can spread between humans.

Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the coronavirus was first detected, announced a series of new measures Tuesday, including the cancellation of upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations, expected to attract hundreds of thousands of people.

Tour agencies have been banned from taking groups out of Wuhan and the number of thermal monitors and screening areas in public spaces will be increased. Traffic police will also conduct spot checks on private vehicles coming in and out of the city to look for live poultry or wild animals, after the virus was linked to a seafood and live animal market, according to a report by state media outlet the People’s Daily, citing Wuhan’s Municipal Health Commission.

The new measures come after Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered “resolute efforts to curb the spread” of the virus Monday.

There are now fears, however, that efforts to contain it are coming too late, hampered by a slow-moving Chinese bureaucracy which failed to put sufficient measures in place in time.

In the coming days, hundreds of millions of Chinese are expected to begin traveling across the country and overseas as the annual Lunar New Year break gets fully underway, compounding concerns of a further spike in cases.

Though infections were first detected in Wuhan in mid-December, infrared temperature screening areas were not installed in the city’s airports and stations until January 14, according to state media.

On Tuesday, China’s National Health Commission announced that it had received 291 confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus, with 77 new cases reported on January 20.” (D)

“Earlier on Monday, Chinese authorities reported that the number of cases had tripled over the weekend to 218. The outbreak has spread to Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzen, hundreds of miles from Wuhan, where the virus first surfaced last month.” (E)

“Thailand and Japan each reported new cases of a coronavirus that has left two people dead and at least 40 sick in China, adding to concerns about the spread of the virus beyond Chinese borders ahead of a major holiday.

Health officials in Thailand on Friday said they had found a second case of the mysterious pneumonialike coronavirus in that country, in a 74-year-old Chinese woman. The woman is in good and stable condition, said a spokesman for Thailand’s public health ministry, Rungrueng Kitphati.

The woman entered Thailand through Bangkok via a flight from the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. Investigators were still trying to gather information from the woman but have been hindered by a language barrier, Mr. Rungrueng said.

On Thursday, Japan’s Health Ministry said that a Chinese man in his 30s tested positive for the coronavirus. The man, a resident of Kanagawa Prefecture, just south of Tokyo, returned to Japan on Jan. 6 after traveling to Wuhan. The man, who came down with a fever on Jan. 3, was hospitalized on Friday but was discharged five days later because he had recovered, according to the Health Ministry.” (F)

“A British tourist is feared to have contracted the mysterious coronavirus that’s sweeping Asia after he was hospitalized on a trip to Thailand, according to a report.

Ash Shorley, 32, was admitted in critical condition to a Phuket hospital, where he’s being treated for pneumonia-like lung infections, the Sun reported.

Doctors believe his symptoms are consistent with the new Chinese coronavirus, which has killed three patients and infected hundreds of others.

“They think he is the first Western victim of the Chinese flu,” his father, Chris, told the outlet. “We are waiting on tests.”” (G)

 “Airports in New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles will begin screening passengers arriving from Wuhan, China, for infection with a mysterious respiratory virus that has killed two people and sickened at least 45 overseas, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Friday.” (H)

“Officials this week also confirmed that the new coronavirus, which is linked to a seafood and animal market in Wuhan, is transmissible between humans. This ultimately sparked fears that a person infected with the virus and experiencing the most severe stage of infection could be a super-spreader —  someone who transmits the virus to a considerable more amount of people than the average infected person, the South China Morning Post reported…

In response to the outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) is holding an emergency meeting on Wednesday to determine whether or not it should be considered an international public health emergency, according to the South China Morning Post…

Australia is taking similar measures, with officials there announcing Tuesday that the country will also begin screening passengers who are arriving from Wuhan, according to The New York Times. Japan and South Korea also announced increased airport screenings.

But even with screening measures, “You cannot absolutely prevent entry into the country of a disease like this,” Brendan Murphy, the chief medical officer for the Australian government, said, according to the newspaper. Some people who are infected may not show symptoms, he explained.” (I)

“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday confirmed the first U.S. case of a deadly new coronavirus that has killed six people in China.

The CDC and Washington state officials said the man, in his 30s, was in good condition at Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett. The symptoms presented Sunday and the diagnosis was confirmed Monday.

Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, called the news “concerning.”

“We’re still in the early days of this investigation,” Messonnier said.” (J)

PREQUELS

“A SEVERE FLU PANDEMIC… could kill more than 33 million people worldwide in just 250 days.” – “Boy, do we not have our act together.” — Bill Gates”. (J)

ASSIGNMENT: Does your community have a seasonal flu EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN? Do your community’s hospitals have SURGE CAPACITY  and RAPID RESPONSE TEAMS? If not, develop a plan!

EBOLA. PART 13. Ebola Treatment Centers are having difficulty maintaining their ability to respond to Ebola cases that may come again to the U.S.

ASSIGNMENT: As Ebola spreads from Congo to contiguous countries In Africa, is the United States prepared for Ebola and other known and unknown emerging viruses?

PART 4. CANDIDA AURIS. “.. nursing facilities, and long-term hospitals, are…continuously cycling infected patients, or those who carry the germ, into hospitals and back again.”

Tomorrow morning’s Emergency Preparedness meeting (just scheduled for 8AM, https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2018/10/tomorrow-mornings-emergency-preparedness-meeting-just-scheduled-for-8am/

“we are not finished with Zika… It very well could come back.” Are we ready?

Hospitals are developing their own Zika preparedness models. Compare the Central Florida and Johns Hopkins approaches! Which template makes more sense? https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2016/09/hospitals-are-developing-their-own-zika-preparedness-models-compare-the-central-florida-and-johns-hopkins-approaches-which-template-makes-more-sense/

We don’t know what we don’t know” (1) The challenge to emergency preparedness….., https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2017/08/we-dont-know-what-we-dont-know-1-the-challenge-to-emergency-preparedness/

Doctor, Did You Wash Your Hands?® There is a sign in my primary care provider’s examination room:

Doctor, Did You Wash Your Hands?® There is a sign in my primary care provider’s examination room:

Patients and Visitors

ASK FOR SAFE CARE

ASK FOR CLEAN HANDS

Germs that can cause serious infections are in every healthcare facility. They can be on your healthcare provider’s hands and also your own.

It’s OK to ask for clean hands. It could save your life. Make sure everyone around you has clean hands to protect against infection.

SPEAK UP FOR CLEAN HANDS.

________________________________

Hand hygiene plays a critical role in preventing the spread of pathogens that can lead to healthcare-associated infections (HAI), yet many U.S. health systems are falling short on their hand hygiene compliance rates. The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) estimates that healthcare providers clean their hands about half the times they should. Missing these hand hygiene opportunities puts patients at risk for HAIs.” (K)

ASSIGNMENT: Develop an evidence-based hand-washing plan for your community hospital.

“Hand hygiene is described by many health care workers as the single most important tool in preventing the spread of health care-associated infections between patients…

Organisms found on HCW hands after such patient contact range from Klebsiella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium difficile, MRSA and gram-negative bacteria. However, direct patient contact is not the only way HCW hands can be contaminated. HCWs can acquire bacteria on their hands by touching contaminated surfaces in the patient environment and simply by touching a contaminated chart at the nurses’ station, according to the literature.

Washing hands before and after patient contact seems like a simple solution to prevent the spread of bacteria between patients. Most hospitals have hand hygiene policies in place that guide their employees to do just that. But it is not as simple as it seems.

“When we look at all of the things that we can do to prevent infections in the hospital, one of the most important things about hand hygiene is that it works for so many different types of organisms, and you get a lot of bang for the buck,” …“The issue is that you have to practice it at a high level of compliance for it to work. There are so many opportunities for hand hygiene, and it is difficult to get to a level of compliance where we’re able to make changes to infection rates.”” (A)

“What’s The Problem? Most germs that cause serious infections in healthcare are spread by people’s actions. Hand hygiene is a great way to prevent infections. However, studies show that on average, healthcare providers clean their hands less than half of the times they should. This contributes to the spread of healthcare-associated infections that affect 1 in 25 hospital patients on any given day. Every patient is at risk of getting an infection while they are being treated for something else. Even healthcare providers are at risk of getting an infection while they are treating patients. Preventing the spread of germs is especially important in hospitals and other facilities such as dialysis centers and nursing homes.” (B)

“How much hand hygiene is enough? Guidelines vary, but according to Dr. Clifford McDonald, associate director for science at the CDC, nurses or doctors in the intensive care unit may have to clean their hands over 100 times in an eight-hour shift.

SCVMC and many other hospitals are working on ways to increase compliance. One strategy involves publicizing compliance data — apparently, some hospital departments enjoy some healthy competition.

Another study being presented at APIC from the Henry Ford Health System in Detroit found that hand-washing rates improved after hospital staff members were shown images of millions of bacteria found on common surfaces. Appealing to human emotions — like disgust — seems to have had a meaningful impact.

On May 5, the CDC launched a “Clean Hands Count Campaign” to promote hand hygiene adherence in hospitals. Part of their mission is to empower patients to hold healthcare workers accountable for cleaning their hands.

McDonald encourages patients to remind doctors and nurses to sanitize their hands — even though it might feel like an uncomfortable shift in the traditional power dynamic.

“If we can get the patients more involved in that — and get them to be able to speak up, that is really the main thing,” he said. “A lot of patients are nervous about that kind of thing — that’s another culture we’re trying to change.”” (C)

“My colleagues and I have been studying how to prevent hospital infections for years. Our research – which has included site visits to over 50 U.S. hospitals as well as a large-scale collaborative effort involving over 1,000 U.S. hospitals and several hospitals in Japan and Italy – found that opposition to hospitals’ infection prevention initiatives comes from a type of health care worker that we classified as active resisters.

Active resisters are people who like doing things a certain way for the simple reason that things have always been done that way. During one site visit, an infectious diseases doctor involved in preventing infections told us:

Getting the surgeons to adopt things in general is problematic …they’re like baseball players, they’ve got superstitions…in their minds if it’s working, why should we change it.

But at least you know who these people are since they speak up at meetings and actively resist changing behavior.

Active resister or organizational constipator?

The second type are what we termed organizational constipators. These individuals often have nothing against an initiative per se but simply enjoy exercising their power by refusing to change, albeit below the radar. The challenging aspect about organizational constipators is that the people above them think they are doing a good job, while those below them cannot believe they still have a job.

Yet another barrier we found in our research is that many hospitals have a culture of mediocrity rather than a culture of excellence. These hospitals are content to be just good enough. Leadership is generally ineffective. Overperformers are rewarded with more work…

If guidelines, personal bottles of hand sanitizer and constant feedback aren’t enough, perhaps health care workers should heed the words of Dr. Avedis Donabedian, an internationally known expert in health care quality.

In an interview about health care and how to improve it. Dr. Donabedian was clear:

Health care is a sacred mission…Doctors and nurses are stewards of something precious…Ultimately, the secret of quality is love. You have to love your patient, you have to love your profession…If you have love, you can then work backward to monitor and improve the system.

If we have love, we will wash our hands before touching our patients.” (D)

“What is the correct hand washing technique for good hand hygiene?

It’s important that we know when to wash our hands before we consider the best technique for doing so. Hand Hygiene Australia have identified ‘5 moments for hand hygiene’ which include:

before touching a patient

before a procedure

after a procedure or body fluid exposure

after touching a patient

after touching a patient’s surroundings.

The commonly held thought is that it’s only before or after direct patient contact that it becomes necessary to wash our hands but clearly there are so many more instances where we can pick up infection carrying organisms.

One of the key risks is that the organisms are invisible and we cannot know they are there, it’s crucial that good hand hygiene becomes more than a habit but second nature.

Despite the clear need for good hand hygiene, there are many obstacles that appear to be preventing it becoming routine amongst healthcare professionals. Some of these are down to poor perception – such as patient need taking priority over hand washing, that gloves are an effective barrier or a lack of understanding of cross contamination. Whereas institutional problems can also be a barrier, such as not enough hand washing stations, staff shortages, lack of policy, or simple forgetfulness.

The battle against hospital acquired infection continues, and with antibiotic resistance ever increasing, there shows little sign of it stopping soon. Effective hand hygiene is one of the simple steps every nurse, midwife and medical professional can take to help combat infection and protect their patients from harm.” (E)

“Walk into most manufacturing plants that are performing well, perhaps winning the Malcolm Baldrige Award,1  and you will find robust leadership and management systems focused on customer needs. Good leaders establish a bedrock of values, a clear moral compass, and a compelling vision and inspire others to embrace that vision. Good managers declare goals and measures and ensure that both of these cascade through each level of the organization, with designated processes and persons accountable for them. Workers know the behaviors needed to achieve the goals, and management is visible in their work area and posts performance on key behaviors.

Health care has not yet widely embraced these management practices. Despite considerable clinical research to identify essential behaviors and practices, health care processes are unreliable, for which there are several reasons. First, we are still heavily practicing the “art” of medicine, reflecting a failure to determine when art is needed and when more disciplined science should be practiced.

Second, at most organizations, clinicians are not trained in the tools and methods of Lean, Six Sigma, and change management—which Chassin and colleagues, in their two articles in this issue of The Joint Commission Journal on Quality and Patient Safety, 2,3 refer to collectively as Robust Process Improvement® (RPI®).

Third, our accountability systems are grossly underdeveloped, and low compliance with evidence-based practices is too often tolerated.” (F)

“Five key categories of hand hygiene intervention (HHI) emerged: (1) improving awareness with education (knowledge transfer, evaluation, mentoring and feedback), (2) facility design and planning, (3) unit-level protocols and procedures, (4) institution-wide programs, and (5) multimodal interventions.

•Although some evidence-based HHI has been developed, sustaining hand hygiene compliance remains challenging.

•Components like environmental psychology, behavioral economics, and financial rewards should be used to better understand and catalyze improved behavioral change in various contexts and environments to improve hand hygiene.” (G)

“Recent trials have demonstrated that Surfaceskins, self-disinfecting door push-pads and pull-handles designed to kill deposited germs in seconds, promote hand hygiene awareness and significantly improve hand hygiene compliance.

Surfaceskins Ltd, a company part owned by University of Leeds spin off, NIRI (Nonwovens Innovation and Research Institute Ltd) believes the latest trial, conducted in hospital theaters over six months with results published in the Journal of Hospital Infection, is a watershed moment for the company, as it shows that, in addition to the potential to eliminate doors as a source of hand contamination, Surfaceskins can also have an additional infection control benefit by improving hand hygiene awareness and compliance.” (H)

“Ultraviolet sanitizing devices could be stationed around hospitals to help prevent the spread of bacteria on workers’ devices like smartphones, a small Canadian study suggests.

Researchers in British Columbia recruited staff at three hospitals to disinfect their smart devices twice daily and found a drastic reduction in the amount of bacteria growing on the devices afterward, according to the report…

Smartphones and wearable devices are becoming the medium of choice for doctors to communicate with staff and patients, Stephanie Huffman of Island Health and the University of British Columbia in Vancouver and her colleagues write in the American Journal of Infection Control.

Infections can spread by contact with unclean hands and equipment like respiratory machines, but most hospitals have hand-hygiene rules and systems in place to regularly disinfect medical instruments.

Routine and proper cleaning of smartphones and wearables such as the popular Vocera Badge has not been well explored, the study team writes. Using alcohol wipes is generally not recommended by smartphone makers.” (I)

“Two hospitals in Singapore believe they have developed a more effective hand hygiene program by focusing on handwashing compliance throughout entire wards instead of just from staff member to staff member.

Ng Teng Fong General Hospital and Jurong Community Hospital launched new hand hygiene programs a few years ago using World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, and the results are encouraging, reports Infection Control Today.

As part of the program, staff trained in WHO methods audited administrative staff that were not members of the ward staff, as well as infection control liaison nurses and infection control nurses. Wards that didn’t reach targeted compliance rates within the first month were asked to increase their hand hygiene education. If the heightened education didn’t yield results after the second month of monitoring, then the infection committee chairperson was asked to take over the education. In the event of a third month of failure, a special task force comprised of a doctor or nurse was created to implement a compliance improvement strategy.

No ward exceeded four months of being below its compliance target.” (J)

PREQUELS

PART 4. CANDIDA AURIS. “.. nursing facilities, and long-term hospitals, are…continuously cycling infected patients, or those who carry the germ, into hospitals and back again.”, https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2019/09/part-4-candida-auris-nursing-facilities-and-long-term-hospitals-arecontinuously-cycling-infected-patients-or-those-who-carry-the-germ-into-hospitals-and-back-again/

Renaissance Master Caravaggio Didn’t Die of Syphilis, but of Sepsis, https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2019/03/renaissance-master-caravaggio-didnt-die-of-syphilis-but-of-sepsis/

“President Garfield didn’t die from an assassin’s bullet, but rather from a doctor’s dirty hands.”, https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2019/03/president-garfield-didnt-die-from-an-assassins-bullet-but-rather-from-a-doctors-dirty-hands-2/

It’s okay and important to ask your doctor “DID YOU WASH YOUR HANDS?”, https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2017/08/its-okay-to-ask-your-doctor-did-you-wash-your-hands/

Curated Contemporaneous Content Methodology by Jonathan M. Metsch, DR.P.H.

I taught full time in the Baruch MBA in Health Care Administration program from 1972 to 1975, then was a health care administrator for over thirty years, finishing for seventeen years as President & CEO of LibertyHealth/ Jersey City Medical Center, where we built a replacement safety-net hospital (it took 15 years), played a key role on September 11th, 2001, and once again became a medical school affiliated teaching hospital (having been free-standing for decades).


After retiring from LibertyHealth, I returned to the Baruch program for four years as Adjunct Professor and started writing case studies. I developed case studies based on my CEO experiences. Interestingly case studies on failures provided better Lessons Learned than cases on successes. I also used Harvard Case Studies, and invited “Visiting” Professors to present cases typically related to the new realities of Obamacare, mostly C-Level executives I was still in touch with from my first stint at Baruch. I was very proud of what they had accomplished and shared.


In retirement I have watched health care disruption become so complex that there are few, if any, up-to-date case studies. So I developed a method of “rapid response” content development by curating news articles into a coherent thread, after a topic has called out to me.


Now, my Career Capstone Project is to prepare content that can be used in real-time, meaning they can start a discussion for immediate use in class. .

Here’s my way of developing content bundles:

A. Spend some time looking at the case format at https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/

B. To identify topics sign-up for daily automatic health care news feeds. For example:
1. STAT https://www.statnews.com/
2. MedPageToday https://www.medpagetoday.com/
3. Becker’s Hospital Review https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/
4. Healthcare Dive https://www.healthcaredive.com/
5. FierceHealthcare https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/
6. New York Times
7. Hospital Association Daily News Clips

C. Set up Google Alerts https://www.google.com/alerts https://support.google.com/websearch/answer/4815696?hl=en

for example:

CORONAVIRUS: testing; tracing; therapeutics; vaccine deployment; racial disparities; expanding ICU capacity; herd immunity; safe reopening; school safety.

D. Select topics to follow and make a folder for each

E. Then every day from News Feeds and Alerts select articles on your topics and move them to the appropriate folder.

F. When you are inspired to write a content bundle start a Word document, then go to the case folder and select key points from the articles, and cut and paste them to the Word document. As well capture article title, author and hyperlink.

G. Move the key points around until you have created a “story”.

H. Then label each point A,B.C…and move article title, author and hyperlink to footnotes at the end of the case.

I. Then write an introduction to the case.

J. Questions to jonathanmetsch@gmail.com

Jonathan M. Metsch, Dr.P.H.
http://www.mountsinai.org/profiles/jonathan-m-metsch

PART 5. What are the Lessons Learned (or not!) from the Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital and North Carolina Children’s Hospital pediatric cardiac surgery program failures?

“Repairing a heart is a risky business, especially when the organ fails to develop properly in the womb. Any number of abnormalities can arise, from major arteries that grow in the wrong place to pumping chambers that fail to form.

Now, a 2017 U.S. News analysis underscores a crucial factor that can tip the balance between life and death: where the surgery is performed.

The analysis of four years of data from hospitals across the country indicates that 26 percent of deaths – more than 1 out of every 4 – that occur following surgery for the most severe heart defects could be prevented by having the operation performed at hospitals where surgical teams do the greatest numbers of procedures.” (A)

Little has changed, however, since the first research linked volume to outcomes in the 1970s. Smaller surgical programs continue to perform procedures best left to surgeons at more experienced institutions, even when there’s a high-volume hospital nearby.

The reasons for the health care industry’s reluctance to act include the same forces that shape so much else in medicine: prestige and money. Hospitals mindful of their reputation and bottom line encourage doctors to keep patients in-house, rather than referring them to rivals with the experience and resources to care for them. Surgeons also oppose efforts to limit the scope of their practice.

Community leaders, too, may rebel at the notion of closing low-volume services, because lost revenue could threaten a local hospital’s survival. Plus, some smaller hospitals provide high-quality care and get excellent results.

In 2015, U.S. News demonstrated that thousands of lives could be saved each year if patients with certain conditions, including those needing joint-replacement operations, were treated in high-volume settings. Overall, knee-replacement patients who had their surgery in the lowest-volume centers were nearly 70 percent more likely to die than patients treated at the busiest centers. For hip-replacement patients, the risk was nearly 50 percent higher…

Children who need complex congenital heart procedures face a 1 in 5 chance of dying before going home, while the risk for those needing simple repairs is less than 1 percent, says Dr. Jeffrey Jacobs, chief of cardiovascular surgery at Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital in St. Petersburg, Florida. Jacobs also leads The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Workforce on National Databases.” (A)

ASSIGNMENT: What are the Lessons Learned from the Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital and North Carolina Children’s Hospital pediatric open cardiac surgery program failures? What are the regulatory implications?

First scan Parts 1-4 by clicking on:

 “The U.S. has more than double the number of congenital heart surgery centers that it needs, researchers said here.

Currently, the nation boasts more than 150 such centers: 116 participating in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Database as of 2018, and probably another 30-40 not reporting to it, said Carl Backer, MD, of Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, and former president of the Congenital Heart Surgeons’ Society (CHSS).

Among them are “problem institutions,” outliers with unexpectedly high mortality rates, Backer told a standing-room-only crowd at the American Heart Association (AHA) annual meeting…

The idea is that higher case volume is tied to lower patient mortality in pediatric cardiac surgery, 300 cases per year being the inflection point in one study cited by Backer.

This 300-case threshold held up in a separate analysis by his group, which mined STS data and found that mortality rates adjusted for case complexity came out to 1.7% for centers doing at least 300 cases annually and 5.4% for others with 100 each year (P<0.01).

Regionalizing congenital heart surgery therefore should have the goal of keeping case volumes above 300 per hospital while minimizing travel distance. In addition, policies should allow for at least one program per state that has over 2 million inhabitants, according to Backer.

His magic number: 71 sites scattered across the country.

Currently, Florida and Texas each already have 10 pediatric heart surgery centers — and California 11. In Backer’s plan, this would be reduced to six programs in Texas, four in Florida, and nine in California.” (B)

“A decision on the future of the Sydney Children’s Hospital Network has been delayed four months after an independent review called for urgent action amid protracted conflict over the state’s paediatric heart surgeries.

In July, Health Minister Brad Hazzard held a roundtable of doctors and other healthcare workers from across the state after reviewers said governance issues and tensions between the Randwick and Westmead hospitals needed to be settled “as a matter of urgency”…

A NSW Health spokesman said Professor Henry’s review will make recommendations on the governance and planning of healthcare services for children for the next five years.

“These recommendations will obviously relate to considerations of the governance of the Children’s Hospitals Network and the configuration of paediatric cardiac surgery at the Sydney Children’s Hospital, Randwick and Children’s Hospital at Westmead,” the spokesman said…

Westmead cardiologists believe patients will have better outcomes if cardiac services are focused at one hospital, while doctors from Randwick believe losing cardiac surgery would compromise other services.

“Our message has always been very clear, we believe that cardiac surgery is a vital component of any children’s tertiary referral hospital,” Chair of the Sydney Children’s Hospital Randwick medical staff council Dr Susan Russell said after July’s roundtable.

Most clinicians at that roundtable – including paediatric healthcare workers from rural and regional NSW – agreed the state would be best served with one major children’s hospital providing cardiac surgery services. But medical staff from the Randwick hospital disagreed.” (C)

“Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital has hired a familiar face to help it restart its troubled heart surgery unit.

Dr. James Quintessenza will return as the department’s chief surgeon and co-director, hospital leaders announced Tuesday.

Quintessenza, 62, oversaw the pediatric heart surgery department at All Children’s for almost two decades. But he was pushed out after the hospital became part of the Johns Hopkins system…

 “We will spend the next year recruiting additional doctors and staff, including for cardiac intensive care, interventional and fetal cardiology,” Kmetz wrote. “We will take whatever time is necessary to do this right.”..

The announcement comes after a tumultuous 11 months for the hospital and its heart surgery unit.

The Times investigation, published last November, found that the department’s 2017 death rate was higher than any other children’s heart surgery program in Florida had seen in the past decade. Complication rates also spiked, the Times found.

The problems began after Johns Hopkins took over All Children’s in 2011 and started making changes to the heart department. Quintessenza had performed the most difficult surgeries. But the hospital’s new leaders wanted the cases evenly divided among its three heart surgeons.

Frontline workers noticed problems with surgeries performed by the other two surgeons as early as 2015 and raised concerns to their supervisors, the Times reported. But procedures continued as the hospital’s leaders pushed to grow the Heart Institute.

Hospital leaders also made changes to the cardiologists and critical care doctors who worked in the department.

Quintessenza disagreed with the hospital’s leaders, the Times reported. The spike in deaths and complications happened after he left.

After the Times’ investigation, six top administrators resigned, including the hospital’s CEO and the chief heart surgeon who had replaced Quintessenza. Federal and state inspectors identified widespread safety problems throughout the hospital and mandated sweeping changes…

 “We made a mistake, and we need to make sure we help support these families and make it right,” Johns Hopkins Health System president Kevin Sowers told the Times in June.

Quintessenza, who graduated from the University of Florida School of Medicine, was instrumental in growing the All Children’s heart surgery program.

He performed the first pediatric heart transplant there in 1995. Two years later he became the chief of pediatric heart surgery. The heart transplant program was ranked one of the nation’s best in a 1999 federal government review.

After Quintessenza left in 2016, he was quickly hired by Kentucky Children’s Hospital to help restart its pediatric heart surgery program. The hospital had halted surgeries after its death rate increased in 2012.” (D)

“In just three years, Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital has tripled the number of babies it treats born with congenital diaphragmatic hernia – a hole in their diaphragm, a life-threatening birth defect.

The St. Petersburg pediatric hospital treated 50 children with congenital diaphragmatic hernia in the third year of its CDH program, up from 16 to 18 patients treated in the first year, said Dr. David Kays, medical director of the program.

About half the patients are from families in Florida, and about half travel from around the United States to St. Petersburg for treatment.

Now, the hospital has a dedicated Center for Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia, a 15-bed unit that is believed to be the nation’s first inpatient unit dedicated to the treatment of infants and children with condition, said Thomas Kmetz, president of Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital.

The center is staffed by an interdisciplinary team and led by Kays, who was recruited to All Children’s in early 2016 from University of Florida. At UF, he treated 321 children over 23 years – about 15 children a year, Kays said at a dedication ceremony Thursday for the new center at All Children’s.

“I came here to build what I thought would be the world’s best program in congenital diaphragmatic hernia,” Kays said. “There was a trajectory to this children’s hospital that was perfect for this program. I couldn’t take this program to Boston Children’s or Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia. There were too many egos to accept me to come in and change the paradigm. But this place was just right. It had the same vision to be a great children’s hospital the way I wanted to build a great program.”..

Kays has a reputation in the pediatric surgical world as a bit of a renegade, “a hard-driving guy with outcomes so great that some people don’t even believe it,” said Dr. Paul Danielson, interim chair of the hospital’s department of surgery.

Danielson describes Kays as a revolutionary, and the CDH unit as truly interdisciplinary.

“It’s not multi-disciplinary, where different specialties come and work together. It’s where different disciplines come together and create their own new discipline,” Danielson said. (E)

“Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital in St. Petersburg and Golisano Children’s Hospital of Southwest Florida have entered into an agreement to expand care for kids across Florida’s west coast. The agreement gives providers at both locations access to medical privileges to admit and treat patients. Golisano Children’s Hospital will also be able to take part in pediatric research studies and protocols through Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital.

This relationship provides a process for collaboration between the two hospitals, with a focus on increasing access to specialized pediatric care. Through this agreement, Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital and Golisano Children’s Hospital will work together to deliver the highest quality care, leverage resources and create better value for families.” (F)

“Three cardiologists from outside the state have reviewed the North Carolina Children’s Hospital pediatric heart surgery program and concluded the program can resume complex pediatric heart surgeries there.

The six-page advisory report released this week by UNC Health Care officials acknowledged that new leadership and investment in the program has helped resolve some of the thornier issues exposed several months ago in a New York Times investigative piece.

The external review panel also highlighted the program’s precarious perch as a smaller-volume pediatric cardiology program aspiring to grow in the shadow of a larger program only miles away at Duke University.

“The current pediatric cardiac surgical volume presents challenges in a number of areas,” according to the report compiled by Catherine Krawczeski, division chief of pediatric cardiology at Nationwide Children’s Hospital Heart Center, Victor Morell, surgeon-in-chief and division chief of the UPMC Children’s Hospital of Pittsburgh’s pediatric cardiothoracic surgery, and Edward Bove, chairman of the University of Michigan medical school’s cardiac surgery department.

The external panel suggests having two pediatric cardiac surgeons at a minimum, able to provide coverage 24 hours a day throughout the year.

UNC averaged slightly fewer than 120 “index pediatric surgeries” in the last year, putting it in a “medium” category in terms of volume. The panel found this “borderline for optimally supporting and maintaining” two full-time pediatric cardiac surgeons…

Meanwhile, the panel noted UNC “must balance” its role as a state hospital and being an important resource for patients with complex needs while also considering whether a referral to another institution might produce a better outcome.

“Complex patients with additional comorbidities that place the patient at higher risk of poor outcome (either surgically or postoperatively) should continue to be carefully evaluated by the medical and surgical teams with referral to another center if deemed appropriate,” the panel stated…

The panel suggested also considering programs that might differentiate UNC from regional competitors, suggesting perhaps a comprehensive multi-disciplinary single care unit that includes cardiac, liver, kidney and neurodevelopment specialists, or an adult congenital heart program, a pulmonary hypertension program or cardio genetics program.” (G)

“Wesley Burks, chief executive of UNC Health Care, reportedly said Tuesday that North Carolina Children’s would be making “further enhancements” to its program, “because we recognize the importance of caring for very sick children with incredibly complex medical problems.”

The health system hasn’t announced a date for resuming surgeries.” (H)

“The federal agency that oversees transplant programs said it would investigate Newark Beth Israel Medical Center after ProPublica reported that the hospital was keeping a vegetative patient on life support for the sake of boosting its survival rate…

The team appeared to tailor medical decisions for at least four patients because of these concerns. In the case of Darryl Young, a heart transplant recipient, members of the medical staff didn’t offer options like hospice care to his family because they wanted to make sure Young lived at least a year after his surgery, according to current and former employees familiar with his care. In an audio recording obtained by ProPublica, Dr. Mark Zucker, the director of the heart and lung transplant programs, told the team at an April meeting, “I’m not sure that this is ethical, moral or right,” but it’s “for the global good of the future transplant recipients.”

In response to the concerns raised by the article, Newark Beth Israel said that it would conduct an “evaluation and review of the program, its processes and its leadership.” It later added that it had hired an outside consultant to perform the review…

Dr. Herb Conaway, a New Jersey assemblyman and chair of the Legislature’s Health and Senior Services Committee, called for the transplant team’s actions to be reviewed. “The implicated doctors must face consequences if the allegations are indeed accurate,” he said in a statement on Friday. “Their actions are a stain on the entire medical community, and they must be held accountable for what they have done to both this patient and his family.”

The editorial board of The Star-Ledger in Newark, which co-published the ProPublica investigation, urged prompt scrutiny of the hospital. “This is astoundingly unethical, and if true, should prompt firings of those involved and a federal and state review,” the board wrote. “The Attorney General’s Office should look into it, too, in case there’s something criminal here.” (I)

“The heart transplant program at Oregon Health & Science University Hospital will resume operations after a yearlong suspension, the hospital announced Aug. 26.

Portland, Ore.-based OHSU voluntarily suspended its transplant program last August after all four of the program’s cardiologists resigned for unspecified reasons.

Since then, OHSU has hired three advanced heart failure cardiologists to join the program. On Aug. 26, the United Network for Organ Sharing approved the program’s new primary physician for heart transplantation, which will allow the transplant program to resume operations.” (J)

“There was a life-threatening mistake at one of the largest hospitals in the Delaware Valley, involving two patients waiting for a kidney transplant. Last week, CBS3 received a tip that a patient at the Lourdes Hospital Transplant Center received a kidney transplant meant for another patient on the waiting list.

The hospital system confirmed that the surgery mix-up did, in fact, take place last week. The two patients have the same name and are around the same age.

After several follow-up conversations with Virtua Health, which took over Lourdes Health System earlier this year, the hospital system admits they gave the wrong person a kidney transplant last Monday.

Officials tell us the organ recipient was in need of a kidney and the surgery was successful. But, they say, the next day a staff member discovered the kidney recipient was out of priority order based on the matching organ donor list.” (K)

MEDICARE FOR ALL. “Midway through July’s interminable Democratic debate, Senator Elizabeth Warren asked a simple question. “I don’t understand why anybody goes to all the trouble of running for president of the United States just to talk about what we really can’t do and shouldn’t fight for,”..“I don’t get it.” (A)

ASSIGNMENT: After scanning From REPEAL & REPLACE to WRECK & REJOICE (from Obamacare to Trumpcare) https://doctordidyouwashyourhands.com/2018/04/from-repeal-replace-to-wreck-rejoice-from-obamacare-to-trumpcare/ , start tracking Medicare for All.

“On March 24th, 2017. “Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) on Friday said his party “came up short” in a news conference minutes after pulling the GOP healthcare bill off the House floor, acknowledging that ObamaCare will stay in place “for the foreseeable future.””

Yet on December 20th, 2017 the INDIVIDUAL MANDARE was repealed. ““When the individual mandate is being repealed that means ObamaCare is being repealed,” Trump said…“We have essentially repealed ObamaCare, and we will come up with something much better…””

At the end of this post there are links to a series of over 60 posts tracking the activity between March 24th and December 20th. Laws are like sausages,” goes the famous quote often attributed to the Prussian Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, “it is better not to see them being made.”

_______________________

“Senator Elizabeth Warren on Friday revealed her plan to pay for an expansive transformation of the nation’s health care system, proposing huge tax increases on businesses and wealthy Americans to help cover $20.5 trillion in new federal spending…

Under Ms. Warren’s plan, private health insurance — which now covers most of the population — would be eliminated and replaced by free government health coverage for all Americans. That is a fundamental shift from a market-driven system that has defined health care in the United States for decades but produced vast inequities in quality, service and cost…

Like Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren would essentially eliminate medical costs for individuals, including premiums, deductibles and other out-of-pocket expenses. But it is not clear if her plan would cover the costs of free health care for everyone. It relies on ambitious assumptions about how much it can lower payments to hospitals, doctors and pharmaceutical companies, and how cheaply such a large system could be run.” (B)

“Warren’s plan estimates that total health costs could be held to $52 trillion and that $20.5 trillion in new federal spending would be necessary…

Where the $20.5 trillion comes from:

Employers are one of the main sources of revenue in this proposal. Warren says she would raise nearly $9 trillion here, a figure that comes from the roughly $9 trillion private employers are projected to spend over the next decade on health insurance. The idea here is that instead of contributing to employees’ health insurance, employers would pay virtually all of that money to the government.

In addition, she will boost her proposed 3% wealth tax on people with over a billion dollars to 6% and also boost taxes on large corporations. Altogether, she believes, taxes on the rich and on corporations would raise an estimated $6 trillion. An additional $2.3 trillion would come from improving tax enforcement.

But there are lingering questions about how much revenue some of these taxes would bring in or how easy it would be to impose a wealth tax in particular.

“Something like half of the wealth of the wealthiest people in America are held in privately held corporations, privately held businesses,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. “And it’s really hard to value those assets for tax purposes.”

Warren also includes comprehensive immigration reform as part of her plan. Giving more people a path to citizenship would mean more taxpayers, which would mean more tax revenue.

While Medicare for All is Sanders’ plan, his bill does not include set methods to pay for the plan. Rather, Sanders has included “options” to pay for his health care plan. In a recent interview with CNBC, he said “we’ll have that debate” over how exactly to finance the plan.” (C)

“Here’s a summary of what Ms. Warren has proposed on either side of the ledger.

To reduce the plan’s costs:

Change the way Medicare pays for certain types of hospital stays, such as paying a package rate rather than different fees for surgical services, and paying doctors in hospital-owned practices the lower prices paid to those in private practices. ($2.3 trillion)

Assume that the Medicare for all program itself can operate very leanly. The Urban Institute estimated that Medicare would devote about 6 percent of its health budget on administrators to decide what and how Medicare would pay for things, and to prevent fraud. In Ms. Warren’s plan, that rate is 2.3 percent. ($1.8 trillion)

Assume very aggressive drug discounts. Ms. Warren believes a government system will be able to reduce spending on drugs substantially, including lowering the prices of branded prescription drugs by 70 percent. ($1.7 trillion)

Assume slower growth in health spending over time. The federal government now thinks health spending will increase by 5.5 percent a year; the Warren campaign assumes 3.9 percent growth under Medicare for all, closer to the rate of growth in gross domestic product. ($1.1 trillion)

Assume lower payments to hospitals. The campaign believes hospitals can be paid around 110 percent of what they are currently paid by Medicare, a number that would cause some hospitals to operate at a loss. Currently, private health insurers often pay a lot more to hospitals than Medicare for similar procedures. ($600 billion)

What Warren Proposes

“Medicare for all” would shift a huge amount of health care money to the federal budget, increasing federal spending by $34 trillion over a decade, according to the Urban Institute. Here’s how Elizabeth Warren would make the math work.

To pay for the plan:

Employers would be required to pay fees to the federal government, equivalent to 98 percent of what they now spend on their employees’ health care. Some companies would be exempt, and companies with unionized work forces would be able to lower this payment if they increased workers’ wages. Currently, companies vary greatly in the cost and generosity of their health benefits, so this fee would vary substantially by firm. ($8.8 trillion)

States and local governments would be required to make payments to the federal government, similar to what they currently spend on government employee benefits and their share of Medicaid expenses. ($6.1 trillion)

Corporate taxation would be increased. ($2.9 trillion)

Tax collections would increase through improvements to I.R.S. enforcement, which Ms. Warren believes could raise a lot of money. ($2.3 trillion)

The top 1 percent of individual earners would pay new taxes on their capital gains; they would pay taxes on increases in investment value annually, instead of waiting until assets are sold. ($2 trillion)

Income tax collections would increase, since workers would no longer pay part of their salaries for insurance premiums, which are not taxed now. ($1.4 trillion)

Billionaires would pay a higher wealth tax than the rate Ms. Warren has previously proposed: 6 percent, up from 3 percent. ($1 trillion)

A new financial transactions tax would be imposed on stock trades. ($800 billion)

Pentagon spending from an overseas contingency fund, often criticized as a slush fund, would be eliminated. ($800 billion)

Income earned by immigrants, following the passage of her immigration overhaul plan, would provide new tax revenues. ($400 billion)

A risk fee on the liabilities of banks with more than $50 billion in assets would be introduced. ($100 billion)” (D)

“Displaying a new assertiveness toward her Democratic opponents, Elizabeth Warren laced into her chief political rivals, warning on Friday night that the country was in a “time of crisis” and arguing that Democrats would lose in 2020 if they nominated “anyone who comes on this stage and tells you they can make change without a fight.”

Speaking to thunderous applause during the party’s biggest Iowa political event of the year, Ms. Warren denounced candidates in the presidential race who opposed bold ideas in favor of more moderate solutions, in veiled attacks on Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Pete Buttigieg.

“Fear and complacency does not win elections,” she said at the Iowa Democratic Party’s fund-raising dinner. “Hope and courage wins elections. I’m not running some consultant-driven campaign with some vague ideas that are designed not to offend anyone.”..

 “We need big ideas, and here’s the critical part: We need to be willing to fight for them,” Ms. Warren said. “It’s easy to give up on a big idea, but when we give up on big ideas, we give up on the people whose lives would be touched by those ideas.”” (E)

“How does the Warren plan expand Medicare to cover everyone without raising taxes on the middle class? There are four main components.

First, the Warren team argues that a single-payer system would provide significant savings in overall medical costs — more than other studies are assuming. Some of these would come from bargaining down prices, especially on drugs. Others would come from a reduction in administrative costs.

Are these savings plausible? Well, America does pay incredibly high prices for drugs compared with other countries, and the complexity of our system imposes a huge administrative burden — not just the overhead of insurance companies, but the sheer number of people doctors and hospitals have to employ to deal with multiple insurers. I’ve been puzzled at the reluctance of other studies to credit Medicare for all with big savings on these fronts.

And we should note that even with these assumed cost savings, U.S. health spending per capita would remain far above that of other advanced countries. So there’s a case — not an open-and-shut case, but a reasonable one — for optimism here.

Second — and the cleverest item in the plan — the Warren team would basically require employers who are now offering health insurance to their employees to pay the cost of that insurance to the government instead. Bear in mind that large employers are already required by law (specifically, the Affordable Care Act) to provide insurance. So this would just redirect those funds.

Third, state and local governments currently spend a lot on health care, mainly but not only through their share of Medicaid spending. The Warren plan would require “maintenance of effort,” basically requiring that states continue to spend that money, but on supporting a national plan.

Finally, even with all this there’s a significant budget hole. Warren’s team argues that this can be closed in two ways: some further taxes on corporations and large fortunes, and — an important point — strengthening the I.R.S., which we know fails to collect large amounts of legally owed taxes, principally from people with high incomes, because Republicans have starved the agency of resources.” (F)

“Whatever their many flaws, Medicare for All advocates used to have a decent answer to the question of how they’d pay for it. Taxes would go up, they’d admit, but these taxes would be de facto premiums, because they’d replace the money Americans already spend on premiums and other health costs. On top of that, the taxes would be progressive, increasing with income, unlike normal premiums — and aggressive price controls would reduce costs overall.

I mean, good luck with that, both politically and practically. But you can’t deny that there’s a logic to it.

For whatever reason, though, Elizabeth Warren today opted for a different approach: one where premiums go away, middle-class taxes don’t go up (not even a penny!), and taxes on the rich make up the difference. In other words, it’s a system where everyone else gets their health care at the expense of the wealthy. Even if that sounds appealing, her plan for doing this shows how silly it is.

First, the plan doesn’t keep its promise. Nearly half the funds come from redirecting the money that employers spend on health benefits to the government. Sorry, but your health benefits are part of your compensation. Sending that money to the state instead is a tax on you, not your employer.

And second, in trying to force rich people to pay for (much of the other half of) everyone’s health care, the plan basically blows every dollar the government could hope to collect from the wealthy in the coming years. The corporate tax goes back up to the uncompetitive 35 percent rate it was before the tax reform, and would be collected far more aggressively too. (Part of the burden of the corporate tax is borne by workers, by the way.) Warren’s wealth tax for “ultra-millionaires” gets a new 6 percent annual rate for those with more than $1 billion.

We already have a ton of debt and frightening obligations to provide old-age entitlements to hordes of retiring Baby Boomers, and yet this plan would eat up trillions in new revenue sticking the rich with the health-care bills of middle-class Americans who say they like their current insurance…

The easy solution is just to go back to the old argument, where taxes do go up but they’re more progressive than premiums and lower on average. But maybe middle-class Americans won’t want to give up their health insurance unless you bribe them with buckets of rich-people money.” (G)

“Senator Elizabeth Warren vowed on Friday to pass major health care legislation in her first 100 days as president, unveiling a new, detailed plan to significantly expand public health insurance coverage as a first step, and promising to pass a “Medicare for all” system by the end of her third year in office that would cover all Americans.

The initial bill she would seek to pass if elected would be a step short of the broader Medicare for all plan she has championed. But it would substantially expand the reach and generosity of public health insurance, creating a government plan that would offer free coverage to all American children and people earning less than double the federal poverty rate, or about $50,000 for a family of four, and that could be purchased by other Americans who want it…

But under the plan she presented on Friday, she would not seek passage of a single-payer system early in her presidency. The proposal would instead move people into that system gradually — in a way she hopes would build public support for full-fledged Medicare for all — while temporarily preserving the employer-based insurance system that covers most working-age adults today.

“I believe the next president must do everything she can within one presidential term to complete the transition to Medicare for all,” Ms. Warren, of Massachusetts, wrote in her plan. “My plan will reduce the financial and political power of the insurance companies — as well as their ability to frighten the American people — by implementing reforms immediately and demonstrating at each phase that true Medicare for all coverage is better than their private options. I believe this approach gives us our best chance to succeed.”..

With her interim plan, Ms. Warren is attempting to offer something attractive to both sides of the Democratic health care debate: preserving her commitment to the single-payer vision that energizes voters on the left, while offering a less disruptive set of proposals in the short term to those who may be reluctant to give up their existing coverage…

Ms. Warren’s agenda would cost more than $30 trillion. She plans to offset much of that cost through new taxes on the richest Americans and on businesses.

But she would still rely on Democrats winning control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a slim majority. And she is laying out ambitious details for getting to a single-payer system even as voter support for the idea is narrowing; polls suggest substantially more Americans prefer the “public option” type of plans that Mr. Biden and Mr. Buttigieg have proposed…”  (H)

“Allowing more time underscores Warren’s — or any candidate’s — difficulty in delivering on government-run universal health coverage. Winning congressional approval would be a heavy lift, no matter which party holds majorities in the House and Senate.

 “Every serious proposal for Medicare for All contemplates a significant transition period,” Warren wrote in an online post. “My plan will be completed in my first term. It includes dramatic actions to lower drug prices, a Medicare for All option available to everyone that is more generous than any plan proposed by any other presidential candidate, critical health system reforms to save money and save lives, and a full transition to Medicare for All.”

Even as she continued to praise Medicare for All, though, Friday’s announcement represented a move toward the political middle on an issue that has been one of the most important to voters in the Democratic primary — which begins Feb. 3 in Iowa…

Taking years to get to Medicare for All would give Warren time to convince people happy with their current, private insurance to accept a fully government-funded system. But Friday’s announcement seems sure to raise more tough questions about health care for a candidate who has been struggling with it lately — following her riding improved polling throughout the summer to become one of the front runners in the crowded Democratic primary field…

She is also recognizing that incremental measures that progressives often dismiss as not going far enough could have a real impact on people’s lives. That view was reinforced by a recent study by the Urban Institute and Commonwealth Fund policy centers, which concluded that Democrats have more than one way to get to coverage for all.

“Warren’s proposals to shore up the Affordable Care Act, lower drug prices, and create a public option would still provide substantial health care cost relief for people,” said the Kaiser Foundation’s Levitt.” (I)

Back in 2010, as Obamacare was about to squeak through Congress, Nancy Pelosi famously declared, “We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it.” This line was willfully misrepresented by Republicans (and some reporters who should have known better) as an admission that there was something underhanded about the way the legislation was enacted. What she meant, however, was that voters wouldn’t fully appreciate the A.C.A. until they experienced its benefits in real life.

It took years to get there, but in the end Pelosi was proved right, as health care became a winning issue for Democrats. In the 2018 midterms and in subsequent state elections, voters punished politicians whom they suspected of wanting to undermine key achievements like protection for pre-existing conditions and, yes, Medicaid expansion…

The lesson I take from the politics of Obamacare, however, is that successful health reform, even if incomplete, creates the preconditions for further reform. What looks impossible now might look very different once tens of millions of additional people have actual experience with expanded Medicare, and can compare it with private insurance.

Although I’ve long argued against making Medicare for All a purity test, there is a good case for eventually going single-payer. But the only way that’s going to happen is via something like Warren’s approach: initial reforms that deliver concrete benefits, and maybe provide a steppingstone to something even bigger.” (J)

“Last week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Protecting and Improving Medicare for Our Nation’s Seniors.” The order is the latest example of how Trump says one thing while doing another. Rather than strengthening Medicare, Trump envisions turning large swaths of the 54-year-old program for the elderly over to the private sector while directing the federal government to dismantle safeguards on seniors’ health care access, shift costs onto beneficiaries, and limit seniors’ choice of providers.

Among other things, the executive order lays out a path to:

Shift the Medicare program toward private plans

Expand private contracting between beneficiaries and providers, putting seniors at risk for higher costs and surprise medical bills

Further restrict seniors’ choice of providers in Medicare Advantage

Expand Medicare Medical Savings Accounts as a tax shelter for the wealthy.. (K)

  1. A.Why Run For President If You Don’t Want to Fight?, by Sarah Jones, https://www.thecut.com/2019/07/elizabeth-warren-best-question-democratic-debate.html
  2. B.Elizabeth Warren Proposes $20.5 Trillion Health Care Plan, by Thomas Kaplan, Abby Goodnough and Margot Sanger-Katz, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
  3. C.Here’s How Warren Finds $20.5 Trillion To Pay For ‘Medicare For All’, by Danielle Kurtzleben, https://www.npr.org/2019/11/01/775339519/heres-how-warren-finds-20-5-trillion-to-pay-for-medicare-for-all
  4. D.Elizabeth Warren’s ‘Medicare for All’ Math, by Margot Sanger-Katz and Sarah Kliff, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/upshot/elizabeth-warrens-medicare-for-all-math.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
  5. E.Warren Laces Into Rivals as Iowa Campaign Grows Combative, by Sydney Ember and Reid J. Epstein, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-democrats.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
  6. F.Did Warren Pass the Medicare Test? I Think So, by Paul Krugman, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/opinion/did-warren-pass-the-medicare-test-i-think-so.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
  7. G.Just Admit There Will Be Premiums in Medicare for All and Get It Over With, by ROBERT VERBRUGGEN, https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all-plan-there-will-be-premiums/
  8. H.Elizabeth Warren Vows to Expand Health Coverage in First 100 Days, by Abby Goodnough, Thomas Kaplan and Margot Sanger-Katz, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/15/us/politics/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all-100-days.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
  9. I.Elizabeth Warren Says ‘Medicare for All’ Rollout Process Will Take 3 Years, by WILL WEISSERT, https://time.com/5730682/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all/
  10. J.Doing the Health Care Two-Step, by Paul Krugman, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/18/opinion/medicare-for-all.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
  11. K.Trump’s Plan To Privatize Medicare, by By Emily Gee, Maura Calsyn, and Nicole Rapfogel, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2019/10/11/475646/trumps-plan-privatize-medicare/

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

S.1129 – Medicare for All Act of 2019

Sponsor: Sen. Sanders, Bernard [I-VT] (Introduced 04/10/2019)

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1129/text

Compare Medicare-for-all and Public Plan Proposals

Where 2020 Democrats stand on Medicare-for-all https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/policy-2020/medicare-for-all/

Where the top Democratic U.S. presidential candidates stand on ‘Medicare for All’

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-healthcare-factbox/where-the-top-democratic-us-presidential-candidates-stand-on-medicare-for-all-idUSKCN1VV13A

MEDICARE FOR ALL. Use this calculator to find out what Elizabeth’s plan for Medicare for All will mean for you. https://elizabethwarren.com/calculator/medicare-for-all

“The soldier, above all other people, prays for peace, for he must suffer and bear the deepest wounds and scars of war.” Douglas MacArthur

From 1967 to 1970, during the Vietnam War, my first assignment as a junior Air Force 2nd Lieutenant, was as Administrative Officer of the 4th Casualty Staging Flight attached to Wilford Hall USAF Medical Center, Lackland AFB in San Antonio, Texas. We received combat casualties still in battlefield bandages, often within 24 hours of injury, and either admitted them to Wilford Hall or further transported them to hospitals near home.

Recently it occurred to me to look back at how battlefield casualties were handled going back to the Revolutionary War and forward to Iraq/ Afghanistan. BATTLEFIELD MEDICINE is now a medical discipline! (But battlefield surgeon readiness may be at risk.)

BATTLEFIELD MEDICINE. “A war benefits medicine more than it benefits anybody else. It’s terrible, of course, but it does.” *

Introduction

SURGEONS IN EVERY branch of service in military hospitals worldwide perform complex, high-risk operations on active-duty personnel, their family members and some retirees in such small numbers that they may put patients at risk, a U.S. News & World Report investigation has found.

Three decades of research has shown doctors and hospitals with the highest volumes of certain complex surgical procedures achieve the best results. But military surgeons serve a population that’s relatively young and healthy. They lack the steady stream of older patients requiring surgery that would allow the doctors to sharpen their skills and sustain their readiness to help troops on the battlefield.

“You want to do more. In some cases, you’re begging to do more,” says Dr. Scott Steele, chair of colorectal surgery at the Cleveland Clinic, a West Point Graduate, former Army surgeon and Bronze Star recipient with more than two decades of service, including deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan…

The U.S. News analysis suggests that the surgical case shortage, coupled with the remoteness of some base hospitals from larger military or civilian medical centers, prompts some surgeons to tackle cases that may exceed their surgical skills…”  (A)

THE REVOLUTIONARY WAR

“When the Revolutionary War began its actual skirmishes in 1776, early attempts to prepare for the medical needs related to War were made in the City of New York. During the spring and summer of 1776, Samuel Loudon was publishing his newspaper the New York Packet, in which he included numerous articles and announcements regarding the Continental Army. On July 29, for example, came the following announcement written by Thomas Carnes, Stewart and Quartermaster to the General Hospital of King’s College, New York. Anticipating an increase demand for medically trained staff, he filed the following request for volunteers:

“GENERAL HOSPITAL New-York, July 29, 1776 Wanted immediately in the General Hospital, a number of women who can be recommended for their honesty, to act in the capacity of nurses: and a number of faithful men for the same purpose…King’s College, New York” (A)

“One of the most famous surgeons, and the first, was Cornelius Osborn. He was recruited in the Spring of 1776 and had little training even as a physician. The Continental Congress was even concerned about the well-being of the troops and the militia. They passed several ordinances and helped establish the order for the several field Hospitals during the War. The hospitals served about 20,000 men in the fight. Each hospital was required for each surgery to have at least one physician or surgeon, and one assistant, which was usually and apprentice of some sort. Each hospital’s staff numbers varied on how many wounded it served and the severity of the wounds….

Most of the deaths in the Revolutionary War were from infection and illness rather than actual combat. The common practice if a limb was badly infected of fractured was to amputate it, where most amputees died of gangrene a result of not properly cleaning instruments after surgeries. Only 35% of amputees actually survived surgery. There were no pain killers quite developed back then. So at most the patient were given alcohol and a stick to bite down on while the surgeon worked. Two assistants would hold him down, a good surgeon could perform the entire process in a mere 45 seconds, after which the patient usually went into shock and fainted. This allowed the surgeon to stich up the wound and prepare for the next amputation. Another way they decided to clean wounds, disease, or infection was by applying mercury directly to the cut of injured space, and letting it run through the blood stream which usually resulted in death.” (B)

“To seek treatment for any serious ailment, a soldier would have had to go to a hospital of sorts. Military regiments had a surgeon on staff to care for the men, so the soldier’s first stop would be with the surgeon. During battles, the surgeon could be found in a makeshift or “flying” hospital that consisted of a tent, an operating table, and some medical equipment. If the surgeon could not treat the soldier, he might be sent to a hospital. Many regimental hospitals were in nearby houses, while general hospitals for more in-depth treatment were sometimes set up in barns, churches, or other public buildings. The conditions were often cramped, which resulted in the rapid spread of contagious illnesses and infections….

Woe to the soldier who required surgery after being wounded on the battlefield! The conditions in “flying” hospitals were deplorable. Not only was the operating room simply a table in a tent, but there was little thought given to keeping the table and tools clean. In fact, wounds were sometimes cleaned using plain water from a bucket, and the used water would be saved to clean out the next soldier’s wounds as well.” (C)

“Hospitalization was a serious problem during the American Revolutionary War. Plans were made quite early to care for the wounded and sick, but at the best they were meager and inadequate. However on April 11, 1777 Dr. William Shippen Jr., of Philadelphia was chosen Director General of all the military hospitals for the army. Consequently the reorganization of hospital conditions took place…

After the battle of Brandywine, September 11, 1777, hospitals were established at Bethlehem, Allentown, Easton and Ephrata. After the battle of Germantown, October 4, 1777, emergency hospitals were organized at Evansburg, Trappe, Falkner Swamp and Skippack. Hospitals at Litiz and Reading were also continued. By December 1777, new hospitals were opened at Rheimstown, Warwick and Shaeferstown. Yellow Springs (now Chester Springs) an important hospital was organized under the direction of Dr. Samuel Kennedy. At Lionville, Uwchlan Quaker Meeting House was also made a hospital for a time. Apothecary General Craigie’s shop, Carlisle, was the source of hospital drugs….” (D)

WAR of 1812

“The big advances in military medicine were decades away.  William Morton would develop ether anesthesia for surgery, but not before 1846.  Florence Nightingale would create the professional nurse and reform the British hospital, but not until 1857.  Robert Koch would put forth his germ theory in 1890.  Although the War of 1812 took place well before these advances, there were many skilled military surgeons, most of them aware of the salutary effects of cleanliness.

At one Army hospital in Burlington, Vermont for example, the ward master had a long list of rules: chamber pots were to be cleaned at least three times a day and lined with water or charcoal.  Beds and bedclothes were to be aired daily and exposed to sunlight when possible. Once a month the straw in each bed sack was to be changed. If a patient died, the straw was to be burned…

Skilled as some practitioners were, the war took place in a period when some medical attention could kill you.  Army doctors used emetics to cause vomiting and cathartics to cause diarrhea, both as stomach cleansers.  Patients were sometime bled intentionally.  These cures often left the patients weak, dehydrated and unlikely to survive.

Battle injuries, of course, just compounded the misery.  A bullet in the head, chest or abdomen meant almost certain death.  A bullet in the limbs meant a twenty percent chance of death if the wound was cleaned and in most cases the limb amputated…

Stoicism seemed to be the watchword of the day.  There are accounts of soldiers singing, joking, and even smoking during an amputation.  People at this time were familiar with pain, and soldiers were expected to rise to the occasion. Recovery took place in the hospital, where, in some units, a soldier received half-rations and half-pay as an incentive to get well quickly.” (A)

“Military surgeons often resorted to so-called “heroic” treatments. Those treatments often seem crude and sometime barbaric to modern eyes. Bleeding, the deliberate opening of vein to remove blood from a patient, was thought to reduce blood volume and reduce fever and infection. Blistering, the practice of creating a skin infection on the patient, was thought to lead to pus that would carry away infection. Other physicians deliberately induced vomiting in an attempt to combat disease. Such practices were seldom helpful and often made the patient’s condition worse.

Among the items found in a surgeon’s medicine chest were opium and alcohol, useful for pain management, and quinine, found to be effective in treating malaria. But many drugs were either unhelpful or, in the case of the mercury used to treat syphilis, quite toxic.

Army medicine also suffered from some basic organizational shortcomings. The War Department was ill prepared when the conflict broke out in 1812. Officials had no standardized system of accounting for or replenishing its medical supplies, or for evaluating the competency and training of its medical staff.

But as the conflict wore on, army medicine improved noticeably. Congress created the post of surgeon general and outlined professional qualifications for selecting surgeons. In addition, the Congress attempted to improve cleanliness among soldiers through better camp sanitation, and tried to alleviate hospital overcrowding. Over time, the contents of the surgeon’s medicine chest became standardized, and a better system of hospitals emerged. Permanent hospitals were located well to the rear, away from the fighting, and linked to more mobile, “flying hospitals” closer to the front lines.

But in many ways, the most intractable problem remained the scientific unknowns. Solutions to the fundamental puzzles—the nature of disease, how it was transmitted, and how to prevent infection—remained several decades away. More often than not, army doctors found themselves groping in the dark for answers.” (B)

MEXICAN WAR

“Disease posed far greater threat than the battlefield. In addition to ubiquitous camp diseases like dysentery that had hounded Taylor’s army before it ever crossed the Rio Grande, the rainy season and its mosquito-borne malaria came directly on the heels of the city’s occupation and further compounded public health woes for all of Matamoros’ residents.[6] Smallpox, too, carried off its share of victims. Although all American soldiers were supposed to have been vaccinated against the disease upon entering the army, volunteers sometimes fell through the cracks in the rush to deploy troops, and one army surgeon complained his supply of the vaccine had been ruined by the Mexican heat.[7] Most to be feared was the deadly yellow fever, and with the help of correspondents on other battlefronts in Mexico and from coastal U.S. cities like New Orleans and Mobile, the bluntly titled English language newspaper The American Flag carefully tracked the fever’s progress throughout the Gulf of Mexico.[8]” (A)

To care for the many sick in General Taylor’s command, surgeons set up eight regimental hospitals, each sheltered in two or three large hospital tents, and a general hospital, housed in a large frame building in Corpus Christi. In the latter facility, those whose illness was likely to be prolonged joined the overflow of patients from the regimental hospitals. The medical staff manning these hospitals included the medical director for Taylor’s force, Presley H. Craig, Jarvis as director of the general hospital, a purveyor, and thirteen more department physicians. Three civilian doctors were hired until more Regular Army surgeons could be assigned to Taylor’s command..” (B)

“From the founding of the nation and throughout the first half of the 19th century, drugs were not regulated by the federal government. Problems with drug impurity were episodic, and when occurring, they were usually contained within a state or a region. The usual reaction to a case involving impure or bogus medicine was a call for reform at state houses with individual states instituting laws governing aspects of drug manufacture and trade, but these regulations were spotty at best. The situation changed during the MexicanAmerican War, which began in 1846 and ended in 1848…

Although the high death rate had many contributing factors from compromised food provision and poor living conditions to infectious diseases, public outrage focused on the medical care given to soldiers. It was concluded that adulterated drugs supplied to the Army had caused the large numbers of deaths among soldiers.

This enraged the public, and the outcry led Congress to pass the Drug Importation Act of 1848, the first federal drug law. It was very limited in scope and addressed only the purity of drugs imported into the United States. Congress charged Customs with enforcing the law. Special examiners were appointed at six major ports of entry—New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Charleston, and New Orleans. They checked the “quality, purity, and fitness for medical purposes” of imported drugs using the major  pharmacopoeias (publications describing drugs) and dispensatories for standards.” (C)

THE CIVIL WAR

 “Many of America’s modern medical accomplishments have their roots in the legacy of America’s defining war.”

“During the 1860s, doctors had yet to develop bacteriology and were generally ignorant of the causes of disease. Generally, Civil War doctors underwent two years of medical school, though some pursued more education. Medicine in the United States was woefully behind Europe. Harvard Medical School did not even own a single stethoscope or microscope until after the war. Most Civil War surgeons had never treated a gunshot wound and many had never performed surgery. Medical boards admitted many “quacks,” with little to no qualification. Yet, for the most part, the Civil War doctor (as understaffed, underqualified, and under-supplied as he was) did the best he could, muddling through the so-called “medical middle ages.” Some 10,000 surgeons served in the Union army and about 4,000 served in the Confederate. Medicine made significant gains during the course of the war. However, it was the tragedy of the era that medical knowledge of the 1860s had not yet encompassed the use of sterile dressings, antiseptic surgery, and the recognition of the importance of sanitation and hygiene. As a result, thousands died from diseases such as typhoid or dysentery…

Battlefield surgery…was also at best archaic. Doctors often took over houses, churches, schools, even barns for hospitals. The field hospital was located near the front lines — sometimes only a mile behind the lines — and was marked with (in the Federal Army from 1862 on) with a yellow flag with a green “H”. Anesthesia’s first recorded use was in 1846 and was commonly in use during the Civil War. In fact, there are 800,000 recorded cases of its use. Chloroform was the most common anesthetic, used in 75% of operations. ..A capable surgeon could amputate a limb in 10 minutes. Surgeons worked all night, with piles of limbs reaching four or five feet. Lack of water and time meant they did not wash off hands or instruments

Bloody fingers often were used as probes. Bloody knives were used as scalpels. Doctors operated in pus stained coats. Everything about Civil War surgery was septic. The antiseptic era and Lister’s pioneering works in medicine were in the future. Blood poisoning, sepsis or Pyemia (Pyemia meaning literally pus in the blood) was common and often very deadly…” (A)

“Early on, stretcher bearers were members of the regimental band, and many fled when the battle started. Soldiers acting as stretcher bearers rarely returned to the front lines. As the war evolved, stretcher bearers became part of the medical corps. At the battle of Antietam, there were 71 Union field hospitals. As the war went on, these were consolidated. There were ambulances here that were used to bring the wounded to temporary battlefield hospitals, which were larger, often under tents, and out of artillery range. Later in the war, patients were transported to large general hospitals by train or ship in urban centers. These did not exist when the war began. There was no military ambulance corps in the Union Army until August of 1862. Until that time, civilians drove the ambulances. Initially the ambulance corps was under the Quartermaster corps, which meant that ambulances were often commandeered to deliver supplies and ammunition to the front…

Large general hospitals were established by September of 1862 (11). These were in large cities, and soldiers were transported there by train or ship. At the end of the war, there were about 400 hospitals with about 400,000 beds. There were 2 million admissions to these hospitals with an overall mortality of 8%. In the South, the largest general hospital, Chimborazo, was in Richmond, Virginia. It was built out of tobacco crates on 40 acres. It contained five separate hospitals, each made up of 30 buildings. There were 150 wards with 40 to 60 patients per ward. The census was as high as 4000. They treated about 76,000 patients with a 9% mortality (12)…”  (B)

Most of the major medical advances of the Civil War were in organization and technique, rather than medical breakthroughs. In August of 1862, Jonathan Letterman, the Medical Director of the Army of the Potomac, created a highly-organized system of ambulances and trained stretcher bearers designed to evacuate the wounded as quickly as possible…

A system of triage was established that is still used today. The sheer number of wounded at some of the battles made triage necessary. In general, the wounded soldiers were divided into three groups: the slightly wounded, those “beyond hope”, and surgical cases. The surgical cases were dealt with first since they would be the most likely to benefit from immediate care. These included many of the men wounded in the extremities and some with head wounds that were considered treatable. The slightly wounded would be tended to next, their wounds were not considered life-threatening so they could wait until the first group was treated. Those beyond hope included most wounds to the trunk of the body and serious head wounds. The men would have been given morphine for pain and made as comfortable as possible…

Due to the sheer number of wounded patients the surgeons had to care for, surgical techniques and the management of traumatic wounds improved dramatically. Specialization became more commonplace during the war, and great strides were made in orthopedic medicine, plastic surgery, neurosurgery and prosthetics. Specialized hospitals were established, the most famous of which was set up in Atlanta, Georgia, by Dr. James Baxter Bean for treating maxillofacial injuries. General anesthesia was widely used in the war, helping it become acceptable to the public. Embalming the dead also became commonplace.

Medical technology and scientific knowledge have changed dramatically since the Civil War, but the basic principles of military health care remain the same. Location of medical personnel near the action, rapid evacuation of the wounded, and providing adequate supplies of medicines and equipment continue to be crucial in the goal of saving soldiers’ lives.” (C)

“Many misconceptions exist regarding medicine during the Civil War era, and this period is commonly referred to as the Middle Ages of American medicine. Medical care was heavily criticized in the press throughout the war. It was stated that surgery was often done without anesthesia, many unnecessary amputations were done, and that care was not state of the art for the times. None of these assertions is true. Actually, during the Civil War, there were many medical advances and discoveries..

Medical Use of quinine for the prevention of malaria

Use of quarantine, which virtually eliminated yellow fever

Successful treatment of hospital gangrene with bromine and isolation

Development of an ambulance system for evacuation of the wounded

Use of trains and boats to transport patients

Establishment of large general hospitals

Creation of specialty hospitals

Surgical Safe use of anesthetics

Performance of rudimentary neurosurgery

Development of techniques for arterial ligation

Performance of the first plastic surgery..”  (D)

SPANISH-AMERICAN WAR

“In the three decades between the Civil War and the Spanish-American War, virtually all practical experience of trauma medicine evaporated. Yet in those years, medicine advanced. The 1893 appointment of George Sternberg to Surgeon General allowed the rise of bacteriology and many other vogue advancements to be incorporated into trauma medicine. Additionally, the opening of 200 nursing schools across the United States kept attendant medical practitioners well-versed on germ theory and sterilization…

The Spanish-American War of 1898 was brief, with relatively few battle casualties, but epidemic disease, especially typhoid fever, devastated the volunteer troops. Post-war investigations and commissions generated better understanding of the problem of asymptomatic carriers and a series of recommendations that greatly improved military medicine. The new practices, including the development of a typhoid vaccine, saved thousands of lives during World War I. Studies that established the role of the mosquito in yellow fever spawned preventive measures that ended the huge epidemics of that disease in the Western Hemisphere; this in turn made possible successful construction of the Panama Canal…

New forms of surgical dressings especially designed for field use, composed of sterilized, sublimated, and iodoform gauze; sterilized gauze bandages, absorbent cotton, catgut, and silk, sterilized and packed in convenient envelopes; tow, compressed cotton sponges, and plaster of paris bandages were also prepared under the immediate supervision of this office…”  (A)

“Despite the lessons learned in the Civil War, the government had taken no concerted steps toward establishing a skilled nursing service to care for the sick and wounded during wartime…

The war with Spain was quickly demonstrating the important need for trained nurses as hastily constructed army camps for more than twenty-eight thousand members of the regular army were devastated by diarrhea, dysentery, typhoid fever, and malaria— all of which took a much greater toll than did enemy gunfire.

As a result of their work in the Civil War, religious sisters were recognized for providing skilled nursing services. In view of the urgent need for medical assistance in the summer of 1898, it was no surprise when the government called for every nursing sister who could be spared. Official government records indicated that the various orders furnished around 250 sister nurses, with the Daughters of Charity (originally referred to in the United States as Sisters of Charity), providing the majority of nurses.8 Although members of other orders were represented, their numbers were considerably less” (B)

World War I

Medicine, in World War I, made major advances in several directions. The war is better known as the first mass killing of the 20th century—with an estimated 10 million military deaths alone—but for the injured, doctors learned enough to vastly improve a soldier’s chances of survival. They went from amputation as the only solution, to being able to transport soldiers to hospital, to disinfect their wounds and to operate on them to repair the damage wrought by artillery. Ambulances, antiseptic, and anesthesia, three elements of medicine taken entirely for granted today, emerged from the depths of suffering in the First World War…

Antiseptics and anesthesia saved lives once they arrived at the hospital, but without motor ambulances and hospital trains to get them there, wounded soldiers stood little chance. From the impromptu rescue of soldiers from Meaux in September 1914, the American Ambulance Field Service grew to number more than 100 ambulances by the end of the first year of the war. Philanthropists such as Anne Harriman Vanderbilt bought cars, as did civic groups from cities around the United States. The Ford Motor Company donated 10 Model-T chassis to be converted into ambulances…

What inspired these major advances in medicine? There was a deep need, and people stepped up to find solutions. The new technology of war—heavy artillery, long-range cannons, barrage shelling, and machine guns—rained devastation at unprecedented levels. Medicine had to try to keep up. One good example of this evolution is in facial reconstruction surgery. Soldiers survived having jaws and noses shattered by artillery fragments, so surgeons at the American Hospital and Val-de-Grace Hospital pioneered maxillofacial techniques, and at the same time, brought dentistry into the medical sciences in France.”  (A)

“On the battlefields, physicians employed recently invented medical technology in addressing their patients’ injuries. The X-ray machine, which had been invented a couple decades before the war, was invaluable for doctors searching for bullets and shrapnel in their patients’ bodies. Marie Curie installed X-ray machines in cars and trucks, creating mobile imaging in the field. And a French radiologist named E.J. Hirtz, who worked with Curie, invented a compass that could be used in conjunction with X-ray photographs to pinpoint the location of foreign objects in the body. The advent of specialization within the medical profession in this era, and the advancement of technology helped to define those specialized roles.” (B)

WORLD WAR II

“Battlefield medicine evolved considerably between World War I and World War II. In the former, approximately 4 out of every 100 wounded men could expect to survive; in the latter, the rate improved to 50 out of 100…

A number of new drugs and medical techniques developed in the years between the world wars dramatically improved the survival rate among the sick and injured. For example, combat medics (and even men in the field) carried packets of sulfanilamide and sulfathiazole to coat wounds as a first line of defense against infection. Antibiotics such as streptomycin and penicillin also helped save the lives of countless soldiers…

American servicemen were also inoculated for a wide variety of diseases before being shipped overseas. The most common vaccinations were for smallpox, typhoid, and tetanus, though soldiers assigned totropical or extremely rural areas were also vaccinated for cholera, typhus, yellow fever, and, in somecases, bubonic plague.” (A)

“World War Two was a time where medicine began catching up with evolving technology.  In World War One infection took the lives of many soldiers along with disease.  The number of deaths from injury complications motivated scientists and doctors to determine cures for infection…  

One development was the creation of Penicillin.  It was created pre-war but was not used in large quantities till World War Two.  The first batches in 1939 were weak, but through determination a new version, 20 times more strong, came out in 1945 ().  On D-Day penicillin was used en masse, saving thousands of lives and strengthening America’s cause.  It saved many lives, but still left many to die because the time lapse between injury and treatment still remained very broad.  However, the number of people being infected was vastly decreased and survival chances were greatly increased…

The mediocre blood transfusion process was also greatly improved upon in World War Two.  Primitive techniques became more advanced, and the system of storing and distributing blood became more efficient.  With a better system of storing blood, blood was usually available when a soldier needed it.  The blood was also most likely fresher and less contaminated since the containers were better constructed.  However, blood was often in short supply.”  (B) 

“A major contribution of the 20th century was the widespread recognition and treatment of what we now call post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD. It has probably existed back into history. There are case reports from the Civil War, for example. During World War I, it was sometimes called “shell shock,” which probably included cases of actual brain damage. More often soldiers suffering from PTSD were diagnosed as “cowardice.” Soldiers were shot for it in the British, French, German, Austrian, and Russian armies. As the war dragged on, it became better recognized, but its treatment varied widely. The Russians tried to treat near the front lines, sending the soldiers back to their units as early as feasible. We adopted that practice, and in fact, armies today still treat psychiatric casualties this way. What may seem heartless, actually proved to be the most effective way to treat PTSD and to prevent long term sequelae. The recognition of PTSD as a psychiatric disease of war was not firmly established until World War II. They called it “combat fatigue.” But whatever they called it, they recognized it and treated it.” (C)

KOREAN WAR

“Though the Korean War came to be regarded as a failure by many because of its unsettled conclusion, in one area it was an unreserved success: the care and treatment of wounded soldiers. In World War II, the fatality rate for seriously wounded soldiers was 4.5 percent. In the Korean War, that number was cut almost in half, to 2.5 percent. That success is attributed to the combination of the Mobile Army Surgical Hospital, or MASH unit, and the aeromedical evacuation system – the casualty evacuation (casevac) and medical evacuation (medevac) helicopter. Both had been developed and used to a limited extent prior to 1950, but it was in the Korean War that both – particularly the helicopter – came into their own, and as Army Maj. William G. Howard wrote, “fundamentally changed the Army’s medical-evacuation doctrine.” Helicopter medevacs transported more than 20,000 casualties during the war. One pilot, 1st Lt. Joseph L. Bowler, set a record of 824 medical evacuations over a 10-month period. Another example tellingly highlights the impact of the helicopter. The Eighth Army surgeon estimated that of the 750 critically wounded soldiers evacuated on Feb. 20, 1951, half would have died if only ground transportation had been used…

The Korean War also provided an opportunity to study and test new equipment and procedures, many of which would go on to become standards of care in both the military and civilian medical communities. These included vascular reconstruction, the use of artificial kidneys, development of lightweight body armor, and research on the effects of extreme cold on the body, which led to development of better cold weather clothing and improved cold weather medical advice and treatment. The newest antibiotics were used widely, and other drugs that advanced medical care included the anticoagulant heparin, the sedative Nembutal, and the use of serum albumin and whole blood to treat shock cases. In addition, computerized data collection (in the form of computer punch cards) of the type of battle and non-battle casualties was used for the first time. The extensive detail and accessibility of this data allowed for the most thorough and comprehensive analysis of military medical information yet…” (A)

Medical professionals made significant changes to the way they treated injured troops during the Korean War, which led to fewer casualties as well as medical advancements for civilians. The war set the stage for how medical professionals treat trauma patients today.” (B)

VIETNAM

Both the Korean and Vietnam wars proved to be severe challenges to the medical system, the former for cold weather operations, and the latter for tropical and jungle warfare. The medical services gradually adapted to these challenges. By the time of the Vietnam war, for example, operations could be done in contained, air-conditioned operating theaters that were containerized so as to be moved close to the battlefield. (See Figure 6.) Helicopter evacuation supplemented ground ambulances, and air transport replaced hospital trains. The system of progressive levels of casualty care has turned into doctrine, and remains the guiding principle for casualty care. Operation during the 40 years since Vietnam have produced far fewer casualties, yet have challenged the military medical services in different ways. Small unit operations at greater and greater distances have increased reliance on medical corpsmen, who are now trained to at least the level of civilian Emergency Medical Technicians, and often higher. Casualty care and evacuation in a hostile civilian environment, always a problem in warfare, has been made more complex by opponents who refuse to respect the non-combatant status of medical facilities and personnel.” (A)

IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN

“In the Vietnam War, with its close quarters and heavy use of helicopters, the time between hurt and help averaged two hours but could be as little as 30 minutes. With the improved speed came a reduction in deaths among the wounded, from 8.5 percent in World War I to 1.7 percent in Vietnam.

In the Persian Gulf, “many of the wounded may have to be carried first by litter from the field, then by truck back to a station where helicopters may evacuate them to a surgical hospital,” General Blanck said. “It could take hours in some situations.” The Platoon Lifesaver

Because of potential delays, the military now gives all soldiers training in a few emergency medical techniques like clearing respiratory blockage. “A wounded soldier’s survival may depend on his buddy’s ability to initiate lifesaving care on the battlefield,” wrote Lieut. Col. James A. Martin, commander of the Army Medical Research Unit. “Each soldier should possess the skill to clear an airway, control bleeding and start an intravenous fluid line to control shock.”

Foot soldiers do not have that full training, but in many platoons, General Blanck said, one soldier has been trained and designated the lifesaver.

“We did not have this in Vietnam,” he said, “and it may really be needed in the kind of warfare we may have in the gulf.”

Other changes since the Vietnam War include new vaccines and treatments, including one for Hepatitis A and one to prevent septic shock from a sudden invasion of certain types of bacteria in people who are most seriously wounded. There are vaccines against local diseases, and one against anthrax to protect troops who may be targets of biological warfare.

Once they reach a hospital, soldiers will benefit from improved techniques to repair torn blood vessels and treat burns. CAT scanners will be available in the larger hospitals of each corps, General Blanck said. Heat Is a Serious Factor”  (A)

“Injured veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars can give credit to the medical personnel of earlier wars, including the Vietnam War, for their care and recovery.

Surgeons, anesthesiologists, nurses, and other staff advanced medical practices for soldiers receiving care in the areas of trauma care and blood supply, repair of blood vessels to save limbs, and studying the effects of a range of weapons.

The contributions of medical personnel improved the outcomes of those wounded not only in Vietnam, but also subsequent wars.

A technique in trauma care in the use of topical antimicrobial chemotherapy for the care of burns and other wounds was available for the first time in the theater of operations.

Another practice that evolved during the Vietnam War was the use of universal donor, or Type O, blood banks in various stations throughout Vietnam.

Techniques that were developed during World War II and the Korean War greatly reduced the need for amputations in the field by tying the major artery to the affected limb.

The improvements in emergency responses and trauma care techniques that were developed during the Vietnam War are still relevant now.” (B)

“DRONES”

 “The Navy corpsman was overwhelmed. Dozens of Marines lay injured at the casualty collection point following a devastating artillery bombardment—and the corpsman didn’t have nearly enough to blood at hand to treat them all.

A soldier’s odds of survival increase nearly threefold if they receive a blood transfusion within an hour of being injured. Unfortunately, the Medical Battalion’s field hospital and its copious blood supplies was over a dozen miles away. With the combat zone interdicted by enemy fire, the odds that medical supplies or evacuation would arrive anytime soon looked grim.

Hastily, the corpsman transmits a map coordinate and a brief request.

Fifteen minutes later, a swarm of drones comes swooping down at over a miles per minute. Hatches in their bellies flip open, releasing not bombs but small boxes which come floating down near the collection point using paper parachutes.

Inside each box is some bubble wrap—and three units of blood ready for transfusion.

Overhead, the drones bank around and soar back to the medical battalion and glide towards a large trapeze-like contraption on the ground. Precise maneuvers allow a hook on the drone’s tail to snag onto the trapeze, bringing the unmmaned aircraft to a halt.

As the drones are recovered, staff swap out their spent lithium-ion batteries for recharging, replacing them with fresh batteries—and new cargo boxes in their bellies.

In a few minutes, the drones are ready to deliver even more life-preserving blood products.

The above battle may never have happened—but it was simulated in a series of exercise in Australia involving a U.S. Marine Corps Air-Ground Taskforce, the Australian Defense Force…and a gaggle of forward-deployed commercial drones.” (A)

(A).Will Blood-Bearing Delivery Drones Transform Disaster Relief and Battlefield Medicine?, by Sebastien Roblin,  https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2019/10/22/will-blood-bearing-delivery-drones–transform-disaster-relief-and-battlefield-medicine/#4e4ddb506252

ROBOTIC SURGERY“U.S. Army physicians, located far from a field hospital, could soon be performing delicate, highly specialized surgery on wounded soldiers using robotics and other forms of telemedicine.

Army Surgeon General Lt. Gen. Nadja West said recently that the demands of future battlefields will force the military medical community to prepare for operational environments that are vastly different.

“We might not have the life-saving ‘golden hour’ evacuation system we have been accustomed to for the past 17 years,” West told an audience recently at an Association of the United States Army function.

“Our soldiers may be isolated for 72 hours or more, requiring prolonged field care if injured in an austere environment,” she said.

Enemy air superiority may not allow the U.S. military to fly critically wounded soldiers to well-equipped hospitals in far-off countries, so field hospitals may have to rely on new, robotic technology to save patients, West added.

Robotic surgery, which is currently used in non-invasive procedures, could be adapted to meet the Army’s battlefield needs, she said.

“There is robotic surgery that’s going on right now,” West said, adding that the challenge will be “how quickly we can scale it all throughout our enterprise.” (A)

** https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/douglas_macarthur_125212