“Health experts have been sounding the alarm about the potential pandemic threat posed by bird flu, which has been showing signs of mutating as it spreads among cows and infects people in the United States.” “Meg Schaeffer, an epidemiologist at the US-based SAS Institute, told AFP there were now several factors suggesting that “avian flu is knocking on our door and could start a new pandemic any day”. “A bird flu pandemic would be one of the most foreseeable catastrophes in history,” read the headline of a New York Times opinion article late last month.” to read the full article go to https://www.barrons.com/news/knocking-on-our-door-experts-warn-of-bird-flu-s-pandemic-threat-5e78fe02
“A Single Mutation Could Bring Bird Flu a Critical Step Closer to a New Pandemic” By David Nield
“The virus has a fatality rate of 50 percent in humans, so animal infections need to be carefully monitored and tightly controlled to stop the spreading strain of H5N1 adapting into something that one person can give directly to another. While several of these morphing mutations are usually needed to put humans in danger from avian influenza, this time the transformation process could be quicker, scientists from the Scripps Research Institute in California found. “The findings demonstrate how easily this virus could evolve to recognize human-type receptors,” says infectious disease scientist Ting-Hui Lin, first author of the new study.” to read the full article go to https://www.sciencealert.com/a-single-mutation-could-bring-bird-flu-a-critical-step-closer-to-a-new-pandemic
“California Child May Have Bird Flu After Drinking Raw Milk” by Nicole Lou . “A possible case of H5N1 bird flu virus in a California child has been linked to raw milk consumption and is under investigation by state health officials and the CDC. The patient experienced fever and vomiting after drinking raw milk and has since recovered, according to an announcement by Marin County Public Healthopens in a new tab or window. Officials said that the risk to the public remains low, as there was no evidence of person-to person transmission between the child and her family members.” “The case stands out for being outside the usual farm work setting.” to read the full article go to https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/113341#:~:text=In%20California%2C%20officials%20recently%20quarantined,contain%20dangerous%20bacteria%20and%20viruses
“China reports two more H9N2 avian flu cases” By Lisa Schnirring
“China has reported two more human H9N2 avian flu cases, which involve children in two different provinces, Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said today in its weekly avian flu update.” “H9N2 is known to circulate in poultry in the region, where sporadic infections are reported, especially in children, who typically experience mild disease following exposure to poultry. The new cases raise China’s H9N2 total for the year to 15 cases.” https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/china-reports-two-more-h9n2-avian-flu-cases
“For the H5N1 influenza virus to spark a human pandemic, its genome must acquire mutations that alter several of its proteins. Some have now been seen in viruses infecting people, but none of those appear to have transmitted onward.”
to read the full article go to https://www.science.org/content/article/why-hasn-t-bird-flu-pandemic-started#:~:text=For%20the%20H5N1%20influenza%20virus,appear%20to%20have%20transmitted%20onward
“H5N1 bird flu is closer to gaining pandemic potential than we thought”
By Michael Le Page
“The H5N1 bird flu virus that has spread worldwide is already better at infecting people than earlier strains. What’s more, a single mutation could allow it to infect the cells lining our noses and throats, making it more likely to go airborne. This change alone is not enough for the virus to be capable of causing a pandemic. However, if a virus with this mutation swapped genes with a human flu virus, it could acquire pandemic potential almost instantly.”
to read the full article go to https://www.newscientist.com/article/2459077-h5n1-bird-flu-is-closer-to-gaining-pandemic-potential-than-we-thought/#:~:text=The%20H5N1%20bird%20flu%20virus,more%20likely%20to%20go%20airborne
“It’s Time to End the Denial About Bird Flu” By Crystal Heath and Gene Baur
“Pigs can foster the creation of a more virulent and transmissible human pathogen due to their ability to harbor both avian and human influenza viruses. Yet, officials continue to dismiss those voicing concerns, calling for more subdued messaging so as not to foster panic—and time and time again, the industry narrative is refuted. We were told the virus doesn’t spread from cow to cow; that was quickly proven false. In June, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told scientific experts the virus would just “burn itself out,” only to have the virus explode in California a few months later.”
to read the full article go to https://time.com/7200002/bird-flu-outbreak-denial-essay/
“Avian Flu Could Define Trump’s Second Presidency” By Artis Curiskis “Reveal’s Peabody-nominated COVID Tracking Project series explored how the government struggled to procure essential data to guide the Covid-19 response, navigate bureaucratic hindrances in the midst of an emergency, and mend a fragmented response to the pandemic. Many of these issues rested on weak data infrastructure and a lack of funding to support local public health agencies, causing the federal government to rely on a volunteer-led data collection effort. Public health agencies are working on fixing those issues, but the anticipated cuts will likely stymie those efforts and exacerbate the systemic problems.”
to read the full article go to https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/12/trump-bird-flu-covid-response/
“Sex, a Hex and a Sick Child Offer Clues to an Epidemic’s Birth” “In a remote Congolese town, a medical mystery led to the discovery of alarming changes in the mpox virus and, eventually, to a global health emergency.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/07/health/mpox-virus-congo.html#:~:text=Global%20Health-,Sex%2C%20a%20Hex%20and%20a%20Sick%20Child%20Offer%20Clues%20to,to%20a%20global%20health%20emergency.
“At least 58 people in the U.S. have been infected by the H5N1 bird flu virus this year, according to federal statistics. All but two of them had been around cows or chickens, two species in which H5N1 is circulating widely. That’s reassuring to scientists because it suggests the virus is spreading primarily through close contact with infected animals, and not from person to person.
Less comforting are the results of a study published Dec. 5 in the journal Science: the H5N1 strain spreading among U.S. cows is only one specific mutation away from more easily binding to human cells, “a prerequisite for transmission among humans,” says study co-author James Paulson, a professor in the department of molecular medicine at Scripps Research in California.
“The U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a federal order requiring the testing of the nation’s milk supply amid increasing concerns over bird flu.”
“The new federal order will give regulators the power to test samples from dairy farms or when milk is being transported or processed….
USDA said Friday the purpose of the federal order is to “identify where the disease is present, monitor trends, and help states identify potentially affected herds.”
“There’s a saying that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Will that be the case with the H5N1 avian influenza virus that’s been spreading among birds for years, jumped to dairy cattle earlier this year and appeared in a pig a month ago? Is hindsight not 2020? Are we seeing the same mistakes made with the H5N1 bird flu that we did during the COVID-19 pandemic? Or is this H5N1 virus situation right now different enough from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic that we don’t have to worry about the “p” word this time? Well, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently lists the public health risk of bird flu as low. But there’s no guarantee that it will stay that way forever. Here’s what we know at the moment about H5N1:…”
to read the full article go to https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2024/12/02/h5n1-bird-flu-concerns-grow-are-covid-19-mistakes-being-repeated/
“What Are Emerging Infectious Diseases? Emerging infectious diseases are infections that have recently appeared within a population or those whose incidence or geographic range is rapidly increasing or threatens to increase in the near future. Emerging infections can be caused by: Previously undetected or unknown infectious agents Known agents that have spread to new geographic locations or new populations Previously known agents whose role in specific diseases has previously gone unrecognized. Re-emergence of agents whose incidence of disease had significantly declined in the past, but whose incidence of disease has reappeared. This class of diseases is known as re-emerging infectious diseases.” to read the full article go to https://www.bcm.edu/departments/molecular-virology-and-microbiology/emerging-infections-and-biodefense/emerging-infectious-diseases
Avian Influenza in Birds: Causes and How It Spreads https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/virus-transmission/avian-in-birds.html#:~:text=Infected%20birds%20can%20shed%20avian,with%20virus%20from%20infected%20birds.
“Avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, is a viral infection primarily affecting birds. A global outbreak of H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, has been spreading across the world since late 2020, driven by a new emerging lineage of the virus — 2.3.4.4b. H5N1 has been a significant concern in global public health due to its potential to cause severe disease in humans and its ability to infect a wide range of hosts, including poultry, wild birds, and mammals. Since its emergence in the late 1990s, the virus has predominantly been an issue for the poultry industry, but sporadic human cases have raised alarms about its pandemic potential. However, recent human cases of H5N1 in British Columbia in Canada and California have increased concerns about the adaptability of the virus and possible mutations that could facilitate human-to-human transmission.” Emerging H5N1mutations raise risk of human infections By Vinod Scaria and Bani Jolly https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/emerging-h5n1-mutations-raise-risk-of-human-infections/article68928505.ece
“Dr. Dave Weldon, a former Republican congressman who is President-elect Donald J. Trump’s pick to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has been off the political stage for more than 15 years.” “Yet over the years his views have aligned in many ways with those of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Mr. Trump’s choice for health and human services secretary, and Dr. Weldon’s potential boss. The two have maintained a 25-year relationship. Like Mr. Kennedy, Dr. Weldon, 71, has claimed that some children may develop autism when vaccinated against measles because of genetics or other factors, despite dozens of robust studies that thoroughly disproved the claim.”
to read the full article go to https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/health/dave-weldon-cdc.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
“The risk of a bird flu pandemic is rising” By Jessica Hamzelou
“How worried should we be about bird flu? It’s a question that I’ve been asked by friends and colleagues several times over the last couple of weeks. Their concerns have been spurred by some potentially worrisome developments in the US, including the continued spread of the virus among dairy cattle, the detection of the virus in a pig as well as cow’s milk, and—most concerning of all—the growing number of human infections.” “I’ll admit that I’m worried. We don’t yet have any evidence that the virus is spreading between people, but the risk of a potential pandemic has increased since I last covered this topic a couple of months ago. And once you combine that increased risk with an upcoming change in presidential administration that might leave US health agencies in the hands of a vaccine denier who promotes the consumption of raw milk, well … it’s not exactly a comforting thought.”
“Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the new administration’s selection for secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees the N.I.H., routinely castigates federal scientists and is a staunch critic of conventional pharmaceuticals and vaccines, with a long record of spreading falsehoods about vaccine safety.
He has said that he would steer the agency into a yearslong “break” from infectious disease research, focusing instead on chronic diseases.”
“But scientists are clear-eyed about the risk ahead.
With reservoirs of virus persisting in dairy cattle, poultry and wild birds, there are ample opportunities for spillover into humans. Meanwhile, the virus is turning up in raw milk on store shelves. And flu season is raising the troubling prospect that bird flu could commingle with seasonal influenza.
“This virus is not so easy to get rid of,” says Dr. Jürgen Richt, a veterinary microbiologist at Kansas State University. “We will have to live with it for some years to come.““
“I Ran Operation Warp Speed. I’m Concerned About Bird Flu”
By David A. Kessler
“No one knows how many mutations will be required to set off human-to-human respiratory spread. That could require many mutations and may never happen. But we could also be just two or three mutations away. If the virus begins to transmit efficiently among humans, it will be very difficult to contain, according to the Johns Hopkins assessment, and “the likelihood of a pandemic is very high.”
The incoming Trump administration needs to be prepared.”
“The USDA, CDC, and FDA can all credibly claim that they should be leading the response, but it doesn’t seem like any one organization has particularly taken up the mantle as the one in charge. USDA regulates agriculture; CDC is concerned about the spillover risk to human health; the FDA regulates milk. And they’ve all been involved, but I think you’d be hard-pressed to find one organization that would say they are running lead on this — that they are the H5 influenza czar overseeing and coordinating all aspects of the response.”
“President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University physician and economist known for his controversial views during the Covid-19 pandemic, as director of the National Institutes of Health.”……..
“Bhattacharya was one of the main authors of the Great Barrington Declaration. The open letter, published in October 2020 and signed by thousands of public health scientists, argued against lockdown measures and in favor of a hands-off approach to the pandemic, relying on letting low-risk people build up herd immunity — a suggestion then-NIH Director Francis Collins called dangerous.”
“If you’re a public-health person and you’re trying to make a decision, you have this very narrow view of what the right decision is, and that is something that will save a life,” Dr. Collins explained in a Covid discussion this summer for Braver Angels, an outfit that aims to bridge political divides. A video of the discussion surfaced this week on X.com.
Dr. Collins continued: “So you attach infinite value to stopping the disease and saving a life. You attach a zero value to whether this actually totally disrupts people’s lives, ruins the economy, and has many kids kept out of school in a way that they never quite recovered.” This, he explained, “is a public-health mindset,” which was “another mistake we made.”
“Dr. Bhattacharya, a Stanford University medical economist and outspoken opponent of lockdowns, masking, school closures and other Covid-19 mitigation measures, and Mr. Trump’s other health picks have one thing in common. They are all considered Covid contrarians whose views raise questions about how they would handle an infectious disease crisis.”
